Golf betting is a marathon, not a sprint. That said, we're off to a good start in the 151st rendition of the Open Championship as the in-tournament head-to-head wagers started 2-0-1:
Andrew Putnam (-105) over Thorbjorn Olesen (Push)
Abraham Ancer (-115) over Matt Wallace (Win)
Nick Taylor (-125) over Phil Mickelson (Win)
I've always said the best value is in the head-to-head sector. Betting portfolios should always be built with the brunt of exposure landing in the higher win percentage and/or lower-hold areas. That alleviates some of the variance that takes place in the more volatile markets, such as outright wagers.
So, let's head to my favorite market and find some Friday value.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Open Championship Round 2 Matchup Bet
Cameron Young (-110) vs. Bryson DeChambeau
I always worry a little about going right back to a wager that won the day before and shifted into being a recommended value after the first round of a tournament.
However, my model thinks Young's Thursday performance, compared to DeChambeau's rough showing, was worth about a nine-point shift. DeChambeau's three-over-par result ended up overachieving the baseline output from his ball-striking by 1.94 shots. That's not the most significant disparity in the world, though it was a return that would have placed DeChambeau as one of the 30 largest overachievers of the round.
On the other hand, Young carried a consistent projection that graded him as a top-25 commodity. That 23-spot deviation from actual performance to expected finish shows the 26-year-old left some meat on the bone for Friday.
I do want to note that my preferred way to make matchup wagers has always been to find a fade candidates over a golfer I'm looking to back. I hope that pushes everyone toward look at additional wagers against DeChambeau, if they don't have this one readily available.
However, we all know I'm the first in line to back a Paul Tesori golfer. I'll cross my fingers that Tesori used his knowledge to clean up Young's shaky putter and give us another winner on a wager that should have been closer to -129, according to my model.
