Brian Harman posted an eagle on the par-5 18th at Royal Liverpool to cement a second-round 64 that eventually gave him a five-shot lead at the 151st Open Championship.
If you think he’s done enough and can cruise to a couple of even-par scores in the final rounds, he remains available at +150 in the marketplace.
However, history shows that there have been many leaderboard flips — even in these types of situations — and a five-shot lead is hardly insurmountable against some of the world’s best players.
If you’re looking for live outrights and want to fade Harman, here are three possibilities heading into the final 36 holes.
Tommy Fleetwood: 5-under 137 (+450)
If you’re fading Harman, the next logical choice is Fleetwood, who grew up an hour from Royal Liverpool and will certainly have the galleries in his favor this weekend.
In his past four starts, Fleetwood owns three top-six finishes, so he’s obviously in the type of form we like for a major championship.
That said, his win equity leaves something to be desired. He’s won a half-dozen DP World Tour titles, but none on the PGA Tour, despite playing the latter for several years.
Nobody is closer than five shots, so Fleetwood makes the most sense, but at this deflated number, you’d better be sure you really like him and just as sure that Harman won't bring it home.
Min Woo Lee: 3-under 139 (+1800)
There is no strokes gained statistic to tell us how a player prepares for a major championship, but in the early part of his career, Lee has shown a propensity for playing his best golf when it matters most.
The Aussie was T-6 at The Players Championship and T-5 at the U.S. Open, proving that he enjoys the big spotlight when he’s competing against the world’s best players.
At seven strokes back, it’ll likely take a couple of under-par rounds — at the very least — to catch Harman, but Lee hits a stinger off the tee and can control his shots in varying wind speeds, so he makes some sense at a bigger price than most other contenders.
Henrik Stenson: 1-under 141 (+11000)
If you want to chase a player who’s nine shots back, then Rory McIlroy (+1000), Wyndham Clark (+3500) and Max Homa (+4000) probably make the most sense.
But if you want to chase someone more under the radar, check out the 2016 winner of this event. Stenson is only seven years removed from besting Phil Mickelson in one of the greatest major championship duels of all-time.
I recommended Stenson as a 400/1 play prior to the opening round because his LIV Golf status has kept his betting number from being what it should.
Now that he’s in contention (somewhat), it’s hardly out of the realm of possibility that Stenson — who posted a 3-under 68 on Friday — can fall back on those old feelings and once again bring home the Claret Jug.
At less than a quarter of his original price, the Swede remains a long shot. However, the inflated price makes him an interesting prospect if you want to get away from Harman.
