The PGA Tour's course rotations in California continue this week with the Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
It's always a tough event for betting purposes when we have to factor in multiple courses and long rounds bogged down by amateurs. But we know previous good results here have been important, so that gives us a starting point to work from.
The Courses
Scoring here is usually pretty easy, but the wind can make it tricky if it picks up. Monterrey usually plays the easiest of the three, but if the wind picks up, the par-72 Spyglass Hill has more trees that protect it and becomes much more playable than Pebble Beach.
All the courses measure around 7,000 yards and play as some of the shortest on Tour.
It’s one of the few events where length off the tee isn’t really a big factor. It usually comes down to a good iron player who can handle putting on bumpy and fast poa annua greens.
It tends to be an event where a star is dialed in and takes it down, or we get someone to pull off a massive surprise.
The Favorites
Jordan Spieth, Matthew Fitzpatrick and Viktor Hovland are the three clear names at the top of the board this week. All of them are available at around +1000 depending on where you look. Spieth has the best track record of anyone in the field with six top 10s and a win in 2017. He's also finished 2nd and 3rd the past two years. Fitzpatrick hasn't played here often, but finally figured out the event to some extent last season, finishing 6th. Hovland has only played the event once in 2020, finishing 38th.
Andrew Putnum, Maverick McNealy, Tom Hoge and Seamus Power make up the +2000 range here. Hoge is the defending champ, while McNealy has finished inside the top five in two of the past three years. Power has had a checkered past here, but did come in ninth a year ago, so he might have finally learned how to juggle these courses. Putnam is in a similar boat, finishing sixth last year after missing out on the top 25 in his first four tries.
The Midtier
I'll start my card here with Taylor Moore at +7000 on FanDuel. Moore will be a popular pick this week. He managed to finish 16th in his debut here last year and is coming of an 11th last week at Torrey Pines where he put up good ball striking numbers.
Moore is a well-rounded player who doesn't really have a big strength or weakness, so a lot comes down to current form with him since there's no clear cut course fit. I'll take a chance the good tee-to-green play carries over and his above-average short game can get him into contention.
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I'll follow up with Nick Taylor at +7000 on FanDuel as well. Taylor won here in 2020 and has peppered in two other top 15s in the past six tries. He was also 7th at Sony a couple weeks ago, which is another short course along the ocean. Taylor is on the shorter side off the tee, but is good with the shorter irons, so this is one of the better spots for him.
Next up, we'll go to Beau Hossler at +8500 on FanDuel. Hossler is a California native who finished third here a year ago. He primarily rides a hot short game, but he did gain two strokes ball striking on the South Course last week in a missed cut. So I'll take a chance on him at this price on a course that might fit his game better.
The Longshots
I'll open this area of the board with Nate Lashley at 100/1 on DraftKings. Lashley was fifth here two years ago and seventh at Sony a couple weeks back. So the game could be in a spot to pop up at an event that suits him. Lashley finds a lot of fairways and has improved with the irons over the past year, so if the putter shows up for him, he can contend here.
Next we'll go to Jimmy Walker at 210/1 on FanDuel. Longshots can get it done here. Both Vaughn Taylor and Ted Potter Jr. were longer than 200/1, giving us two winners in this range in the past seven years.
Walker's health issues have been well-documented, but this has been a great spot for him in the past, winning in 2014. He's also fresh off a 13th at Torrey Pines last week.
That course doesn't fit him currently at all. So even though most of his success came from the short game, the fact that he was close to field average with the ball striking there was a promising sign as we head to a less demanding event.
I'll wrap up here with Peter Malnati at 250/1 on DraftKings. Malnati really hasn't shown much here. His best finish was 11th three years ago. He really rides his short game, but is coming off a 20th at Torrey Pines where he gained more than four strokes with the irons on the South Course. The putting and chipping is fairly solid for him, so if he can keep the ball in play off the time and find that iron play again this week, he's a live longshot on these shorter courses.
This leaves a little room in the card for a live play. The strategy would be to wait until after they've played Spyglass. This week doesn't appear to have much wind in the forecast, so that course will likely play the hardest.
The Pebble Beach card
- Taylor Moore +7000 (.47 units)
- Nick Taylor +7000 (.47 units)
- Beau Hossler +8500 (.39 units)
- Nate Lashley +10000 (.33 units)
- Jimmy Walker +21000 (.16 units)
- Peter Malnati +25000 (.13 units)
Total Stake: 1.95 units
