The PGA Championship is almost upon us, and I could not be more excited about what Oak Hill Country Club may have in store for us this week.
The course looks diabolical, accentuating the projected difficulty by allowing this rough to stay thick and luscious, and the sinister nature of these bunkers will be felt at all turns when we look into the proper penalty they possess.
That challenge for the field will force us to be dialed in for DFS contests if we want to find an edge over our competitors. Let's talk about a few deviations in pricing between DraftKings and FanDuel that might be worth looking into as we construct our builds.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Options Cheaper On FanDuel
Here are the golfers that received the most significant positional rank change between DraftKings and FanDuel. These names all became more enticing on FanDuel because of the shift in where they placed compared to their competitors. It is worth noting that I ran a qualifying metric to eliminate anyone who didn't rank in the top 60 of my model from either an overall or upside perspective.
The three names that intrigue me most when looking at those changes are Stephan Jaeger, Taylor Moore and Cameron Davis.
Stephan Jaeger
I am penciling in Jaeger as my best value on the board. The late addition to the field caused betting boards, DFS sites (both FanDuel and DraftKings) and other platforms to post totals that my model deemed incorrect for Oak Hill.
His distance in 2023 has jumped nearly 30 spots in my model when comparing him to this field, and the projected proximity for Oak Hill is 46 places better than his baseline output. That profile will play in any market, including as a wager to consider in various fashions.
Taylor Moore & Cameron Davis
Things get extremely interesting for Davis and Moore since I wasn't planning to be overly aggressive on either when we looked directly at their DraftKings price. Each was slated to be in my player pool as an option I would have liked to be around field weight on for the week, but the reduction in placement turns both into two of the better values to consider when we highlight FanDuel pricing.
Both Moore and Davis ranked inside the top 15 of this field when pulling only Donald Ross designs for their strokes gained total returns, and each man has his own relative strengths in multiple areas that he can point toward when looking for reasons to be optimistic about working his way up the leaderboard.
Davis is marginally better when projecting his DraftKings value over Moore since we get a lower price and less ownership. However, the positive trajectory on FanDuel should be considered highly enticing for each, making them both worth a shot.
Options Cheaper On DraftKings
As we discussed above, these are the golfers that received the most significant positional rank change. The only difference would be all the options became more enticing on DraftKings this time around. Any golfer outside the top 60 in one of the two iterations was eliminated from the list.
Gary Woodland is the first player who stands out in experiencing that reduction in positional rank when we highlight his ownership on DraftKings.
Gamers seem to think DraftKings didn't do him justice with his salary, which I can't disagree with when he graded as the eighth most mispriced option on the slate. Still, my model keeps pointing toward golfers like Harold Varner III, Stephan Jaeger, Patrick Rodgers, Mito Pereira and Chris Kirk when talking about ownership percentages that feel more facilitative when constructing builds.
I've already talked enough about my love affair with Jaeger on any site this week, so let's instead rapid-fire the other golfers who may present value for you to consider on DraftKings.
Harold Varner III
For full disclosure, it likely was better for my bankroll that Varner left for LIV because I never seem to get him right in these situations. My model always falls in love with his pristine ball-striking returns and believes he has more safety than is valid for these contests, although I sort of like taking him in a first-round head-to-head matchup against J.T. Poston if you shop around and can find that pairing.
Varner has made all four cuts at the PGA Championship since 2019, and my recalculated tee-to-green number generated a top-25 placement on my sheet compared to the field.
The ownership is a little higher than you would care to see for a mid-$6,000 option, but the value is extremely encouraging on any DFS platform.
Patrick Rodgers
I used to say Patrick Rodgers and Wyndham Clark were the same player. That point no longer stands when you realize Clark has transcended his approach data, thrusting himself into being a legitimate top-30 golfer in the world. However, there is a lot to still like about Rodgers's profile when we dive into his distance and Bentgrass putting splits.
Rodgers placed 22nd in my model for projected putting at Oak Hill Country Club this week, and his 2023 distance grade landed him among the top 20 in the field.
The floor is problematic, but the upside is there for a top-20 finish at $6,700 if you want to throw a volatile dart.
Mito Pereira
I've been pounding the table that most LIV golfers are experiencing an overcorrection to the market regarding what we saw from them at the Masters.
However, it doesn't mean certain players aren't going to find success again this week, although it is essential to remember that Augusta National is the single-highest predictive course on Tour when it comes to a golfer's ability to generate rollover success at the track. Essentially, a LIV player performing at that particular event doesn't necessarily indicate anything we should expect moving forward.
I say all of that to note that some of these names, such as Mito Pereira and Joaquin Niemann, might be drawing the short end of the stick when it comes to their chances to compete at the 105th PGA Championship. I tend to believe each would have been priced much higher if he hadn't left the PGA Tour, suggesting the upside is worth taking a shot on for both Chilean stars.
Chris Kirk
I am going to trust my numbers on this one above anything else. My data had Kirk skyrocketing when I ran this event for upside, and the top-30 ability within my sheet was too difficult to ignore for a golfer that landed at a flat $7,000 on DraftKings.
His 16-place difference between the two sites generated the extra value I needed because of some of my other trepidation in other areas. I am under the belief Kirk hits big when he does and likely flames out quickly if it goes south early. That is still a shot I am willing to take at the price tag.
