We're off to Oak Hill as the second major of the season is set to get underway.
The PGA Championship returns to Rochester, N.Y., for the first time since 2013, when Jason Dufner outlasted Jim Furyk to claim his only major.
Accuracy and elite ball striking were the keys that week with guys like Henrik Stenson, Adam Scott, Dustin Johnson and Rory McIlroy all finding their way in the top 10.
This time around though, it appears we'll get more of a bomber edge than in the past.
The Course
Oak Hill measures out to just under 7,400 yards for a par 70, making it about 200 yards longer than the last time it hosted the event.
This is going to be a tough test from tee to green. We've got tight fairways, deep bunkers and tiny greens here. So playing from the rough on the approach and around the greens will be key. My guess is this leans more to bombers who can scramble when necessary.
The Favorites
We've got the usual names at the top, with Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler coming in at around +700. Of the two, I'd lean more to Scheffler right now because he's been more accurate with the driver. Both have elite distance, so finding a few extra fairways if possible will be an added bonus.
Below them, we have Rory McIlroy drifting to +1400 — in the same range as Patrick Cantlay and Xander Schauffele.
McIlroy has not seemed right recently. He had a good week at Match Play, but he missed the cut at both the Players and the Masters. He's been erratic off the tee, and that could eventually get him into trouble here.
Cantlay and Schauffele have been solid all season. Neither has a clear-cut weakness and both could be ready to break through if Rahm or Scheffler aren't completely dialed in.
Tony Finau, Brooks Koepka, Justin Thomas and Jason Day make up the +2000s range. Finau and Day are on my card from early in the season, so that's where my rooting interest lies in this range.
Koepka showed at the Masters that he's ready to get in the mix at the majors, but Finau is where I'd look here. He's been more accurate off the tee this year while sacrificing a little distance. For this course, that should work well considering he's got well above-average length for this venue.
Pick: Tony Finau +2400 |
The Mid-Tier
Guys like Max Homa and Cameron Young are on my card, though the numbers have dipped a little.
Homa is the guy I like most of the two. He's got the total driving to compete, to go along with a great short game. The irons have been spotty recently so that's where my concern would be, especially on greens that will be among the smallest the golfers see all year.
Pick: Max Homa +3600 |
My guess is bombers have the edge, but if it plays to a more well-rounded style, Sungjae Im and Tyrrell Hatton catch my eye as two players who have their games pretty well dialed at this point.
Hatton is most likely to get my money at +4600 on FanDuel. He's finished in the top five in three strong fields this season at the API, Players and Wells Fargo. We all have seen his disgust with Augusta, so a 34th at the first major could even be viewed as a positive sign for him.
Pick: Tyrrell Hatton +4600 |
The Longshots
I'm not diving much into this range, but I do like Keegan Bradley at 110/1 on DraftKings.
Bradley is a complete ball striker who should fit here. He's got a short game that always raises questions, but this season, he's actually been above average on the greens. The Massachusetts native is a fan of any event in the Northeast, so this New York major should fit his liking.
If the putter is competent, he could find success.
