With the first three rounds of the 2023 PGA Championship in the books, we now look to Sunday's fourth and final round. The second major of the season takes place at Oak Hill Country Club, which has proven to be an absolute beast of a course this week.
Oak Hill is par-70, 7,394-yard track that requires precise shooting and rewards accuracy due to the thin fairways, thick rough and abundance of hazards. Two key stats to look for this week are fairways in regulation percentage (FIR%) and greens in regulation percentage (GIR%).
Below, I give out my three Round 4 PrizePicks plays for the 2023 PGA Championship.
PGA Championship PrizePicks Plays
Brooks Koepka: Round 4 More Than 69.5 Strokes
After shooting a 72 on Thursday, Brooks Koepka dialed in his game and recorded a 66 in back-to-back rounds to propel himself into the lead. Does this sound familiar?
At the 2023 Masters, Koepka held a commanding four-stroke lead over the rest of the field entering Sunday. However, Koepka shot a 75 in the fourth round and finished T2, alongside Phil Mickelson, behind Jon Rahm.
Will history repeat itself? Koepka is a big-game golfer, always elevating his abilities during major championships, so I'm not worried about nerves getting to him.
However, I am worried about how much his Scrambling has saved his score through the first three rounds. That is typically an unsustainable way of holding a lead in a golf tournament and it's amplified in a major championship.
He keeps having to scramble because he is missing greens, which is typically a recipe for failure at this course. Among the remaining field, Koepka ranks just 36th in GIR%.
Can he continue to scramble his way to a victory? Absolutely. However, I think it's more likely his score regresses a bit Sunday.
Shane Lowry More Birdies Than Ryan Fox
While Shane Lowry has been relatively quiet this season, he still brings it come major championship time. Not only did he finish T16 at the Masters, but he's also T10 entering the final round of the PGA Championship.
Perhaps the strongest part of Lowry's game all season has been his driver. Entering this week, he ranked ninth on TOUR in FIR% at 67.19%, which is a key skill to have at this course.
Meanwhile, Ryan Fox's driver has been one of his worst clubs this season. While he has spent time between the World Tour and PGA TOUR, Fox possesses a FIR% of just 53.57%, which is extremely troubling for Oak Hill.
Despite his T16 spot on the leaderboard, we have seen that aspect of Fox's game present some difficulties for him this week, and that is just one of many categories in which he trails Lowry. Among the remaining field, Lowry ranks 65 spots higher than Fox in SG (strokes gained): Approach, 32 spots higher in SG: Tee-to-Green, 54 spots higher in GIR% and 24 spots higher in FIR%.
The only aspect of the tournament where Fox has been better than Lowry is putting, which is obviously important, but doesn't carry as much weight as all of the other aforementioned variables.
Scottie Scheffler Over 12 Greens in Regulation
Scottie Scheffler had a miserable third round as he shot a 73 and fell to T5 on the leaderboard. Despite the terrible performance, he still hit 13 greens in regulation, marking the second straight round where he hit at least 12.
One of the world's best golfers will need a big Sunday if he is to catch Koepka, whom he trails by four strokes. But, if anyone can do it, it's Scheffler.
He hasn't finished lower than 12th in any of his previous 12 tournaments. That is just utterly ridiculous, but so is the fact that he boasts seven top-10 finishes over his past 10 major championship appearances.
One of the most accurate ball strikers in the world, Scheffler ranks first on TOUR this season in GIR%. He will lean on his strong iron play to make his final push Sunday and 12 seems like a relatively safe number to back him at.
If it moves, I wouldn't play this total at 12.5
