Due to a frost delay, the first round of the 2023 PGA Championship got off to a late start and there are still some players who need to finish their opening round. However, we did get to see most of the golfers finish, and it was an entertaining day at Oak Hill Country Club.
Eric Cole holds the lead at -5, but still has some very difficult holes — 7 and 9 — ahead of him. Bryson DeChambeau is -4, one shot back of Cole. I tipped DeChambeau to be the first-round leader at 75-1, so I'd gladly take a win or a split on that bet if Cole falls back when he restarts Friday.
Oak Hill proved to be the difficult test many expected it to be. Plenty of stars failed to shoot even par, and a handful struggled mightily. Sungjae Im (+10), Tyrrell Hatton (+8), Jon Rahm (+6), Jason Day (+6), Matt Fitzpatrick (+6), Patrick Cantlay (+4), Sam Burns (+4) and Cameron Young (+4) all have a lot of work to do if they want to make the cut at the 105th PGA Championship.
Matchup Bet: Patrick Reed (-150) over Thomas Pieters (DraftKings)
Friday projects to be even more difficult than Thursday, and I believe that favors Patrick Reed. Reed hung around in the first round, but didn't do anything spectacular and finished +2. Thomas Pieters played great on approach, but also gained 1.83 strokes putting, which is atypical for him. Meanwhile, Reed only gained 0.18 strokes putting. Considering Reed is one of the best putters in the world, I believe water will find it's level Friday and Reed will outplay Pieters.
Bet: Brooks Koepka to Win Outright +4600 (FanDuel)
Brooks Koepka said in his post-round press conference on Thursday that he "didn't have it" during the first round of the PGA Championship. But the numbers don't indicate that the four-time major champion is out of the tournament. Koepka struggled mightily on approach (-1.93 strokes), but was very good off the tee (+1.48). Despite not having his best stuff, he was able to salvage his round, and that's what keeps great players in contention at major championships.
There's a lot of golf to play, and conditions are only going to get harder. If Koepka shoots a couple under Friday, he'll be right in the thick things. To me, that's worth getting involved with his live outright price at more than double what it was pre-tournament.
Matchup Bet: Brooks Koepka (-120) over Justin Thomas (DraftKings)
For my live Brooks Koepka outright bet, I spoke about his ability to hit good tee shots, which held his round together despite the poor iron play. Well, it was the opposite for Justin Thomas (+2). His iron game was solid (although unspectacular), but he really struggled off the tee, losing 0.85 strokes. I don't trust his driving accuracy in general, so I believe he'll struggle Friday in the tougher conditions. Thomas also gained over a stroke on the field with his putter, which is likely due for some regression.
Ultimately, I prefer Koepka to Thomas when the conditions are going to be more difficult.
