I've been having one of those weeks a sports bettor dreads.
Usually, I would pull the plug at this point because of the lack of data we had on Oakdale Golf & Country Club coming into the contest. A data-intensive person like myself doesn't like when unknown quantities can't be properly computed prior to the event. However, I continue to believe we've run into some bad variance with some of these outcomes.
Seung-yul Noh over Roger Sloan on Saturday appeared to be a win until a tumultuous ending caused a three-shot swing over the final few holes. We lost by one. That came a day after one of my other wagers blew a six-shot lead on the back nine, resulting in a push.
The important lesson here is that we can never get too high or too low. My family was extremely good friends with the late Chip Reese and he always told me that sports betting (or poker) was a long road that didn't turn. To me, that meant the highs would eventually experience regression, and the lows would eventually iron themselves out.
It may not feel like that is the case when you are experiencing the extremes on either side, but all we can do is stay steady. Let's talk a play that might be able to get us out of this rut Sunday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
RBC Canadian Open Round 4 Matchup Pick
Ludvig Aberg -110 over Taylor Pendrith (bet365)
My model thought Taylor Pendrith was one of the more overpriced commodities on the board before a shot was ever hit on Thursday. However, his massive overachievement in various aspects has been felt in multiple iterations of my card.
My model seems to believe Pendrith has been the ninth-largest overachiever this week. We can try to take him on in a head-to-head matchup Sunday, but we're also sitting on a pre-tournament head-to-head bet on Brendon Todd over Pendrith that will need a little help to get across the finish line.
One could argue I didn't need to double down on this spot since I already had exposure riding on the 32-year-old regressing. Still, it's hard to ignore a nearly six-shot discrepancy in expected scoring from Ludvig Aberg and Pendrith. That pushes me to believe the value is too significant to bypass.
Pendrith ended up placing as one of only three players in my model to overachieve his ball-striking in all three rounds by a minimum of 18 spots on the leaderboard. If that trend continues, we might be in for a long day, though it is essential to remember that his long-term data doesn't believe he has the short-game acumen to keep up this pace.
