Showdown contests in round four possess some of the best leverage we will get all week since gamers often find themselves trying to grab the built-in points given for where a golfer finishes the event.
It is not to say that it doesn't matter, but when everyone rushes to the top and grabs the same perceived win equity choices, it opens up a world of possibilities for us to grasp equity in other areas.
It is important to remember that scoring from birdies and eagles will see a heightened increase for all names on the final day, and the difference from first to 30th is roughly the equivalent of one eagle or two birdies. That should suggest zigging when others zag as the ultimate route to success. So, let's talk about a few names that could break the slate tomorrow and see if we can't capture a big score to end this event.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
RBC Heritage Round Four DFS Considerations
$10,000 Range – Jon Rahm
It is very likely that most of the ownership for Sunday in the $10,000+ section lands on Patrick Cantlay or Scottie Scheffler. I tend to be much more inclined to play Scheffler when directly comparing the two since the built-in win equity for Cantlay will be on full display when we look at the final ownership returns. However, could there be a way to get different by deploying an under-appreciated Jon Rahm?
The image below shows the 14 names that have gained a minimum of one shot both off-the-tee and on approach, while also grading inside the top 30 of my pre-tournament model.
Keeping Scheffler in your player pool makes a ton of sense because there is backdoor win equity and tons of day-four potential. However, Rahm feels like the ultimate boom-or-bust route if you're looking for a massive payday. When I remove the score from my model's computation system, we are virtually looking at 1A versus 1B.
$9,000 Range – Xander Schauffele, Tony Finau, Sungjae Im, Cameron Young
My model also had some intrigue in Collin Morikawa, but it's hard to ignore the ball-striking returns we have received from Tony Finau, Xander Schauffele and Sungjae Im over three days. Each player is listed inside the top six of the leaderboard in expected scoring when adding in baseline short-game returns over actual production.
The returns from Cameron Young haven't been as encouraging as the other three, though I believe he will come at virtually no ownership if you want to take a shot. I prefer Finau when directly ranking the four, but I will have exposure to each name.
Deep Sleeper To Consider
Hayden Buckley $6,800
According to my model, Hayden Buckley is the most mispriced player on the slate tomorrow at DraftKings. The American does have some competition for that honor when we compare him to Cameron Davis ($7,200), but it is hard to ignore that Buckley has underachieved his ball striking two of the three days while still sitting ninth on the leaderboard.
Do I worry a little that his current position inflates the ownership? Sure. But he is an excellent salary-saving option that easily could have been switched on the board with Jimmy Walker ($7,300) and still would have been too cheap at total.
