We usually have a Masters hangover on Monday morning, but there's no time for that this week. Grab your electrolyte drink of choice and take some Advil because we have another designated event to break down this week. Barring a few big names (Rory McIlroy, Will Zalatoris and Jason Day), Harbour Town Golf Links is set to host one of the best fields of the year.
The course is a par-71 designed by Pete Dye. After being lengthened the last couple of years, it can now stretch to just over 7,200 yards on the scorecard. Similar to most of Dye's designs, Harbour Town can't be overpowered off the tee. When players like Webb Simpson and Matt Kuchar contend here every year, you know distance off the tee isn't a prerequisite.
Most of the shorter, technical tracks on the PGA Tour are very narrow off the tee, but that's not really the case at Harbour Town. In the landing areas, the fairways are just over 34 yards wide. However, many will opt to club down off the tee due to the dog legs and the trouble that lurks if you spray the ball (water is in play on all 18 holes and many approach shots will be blocked out by trees).
The main defense of the course is the greens. They are only 3,700 square feet on average, which is the second smallest on the PGA Tour. Due to the size and the shape (think of an upside-down bowl), these greens are tough to hit in regulation. This places an emphasis on two particular skill sets — approach play and scrambling.
Believe it or not, the top-10 finishers here over the years have gained more strokes around the green than they have off the tee. While the greens are certainly tough to hit, the course isn't overly difficult. It has ranged between the 11th toughest and the fifth easiest over the last five years.
We can expect good scoring conditions this week with the forecast calling for rain for most of the day on Friday followed by two days of little to no wind.
Outright Bets
Patrick Cantlay +1200 (DraftKings)
I'm keeping my outright card small this week because my favorite bets all have short odds. Patrick Cantlay has been the fourth-best ball striker on tour in 2023 and should have much higher finishes if not for a cold putter.
Yes, I know his pace of play can be frustrating at times; however, he can take all the time he wants if he can bring home the win this week. He's the best in the field on Pete Dye courses and has finished T7 or better here in three of his last four appearances, including a loss against Jordan Spieth in a playoff last year.
Pick: Patrick Cantlay Outright |
Collin Morikawa +1800 (FanDuel)
Let me start by saying Collin Morikawa and I never seem to be on the same page. When I bet him, he struggles. When I fade him, he plays great. I doubt the correlation implies causation, so we'll see if we can break the trend this week.
While he can be shaky on the greens, he can also have spike weeks with the flatstick. If that happens this week, he might run away from the rest of the field. He has gained more strokes ball striking than anyone at this event over the last two years (+20.8) and is arguably the best iron player in the world.
Pick: Collin Morikawa Outright |
Shane Lowry +3500 (DraftKings)
Most of the betting community is on Shane Lowry this week, so this would be a fun one to hit on Sunday. Lowry has had two poor performances this year. If you take those out, he has gained 7.9, 9.5, 10.9, 7.3, 5.8, and 5.8 strokes from tee to green in the other events. Those are truly elite numbers.
The putter can be dicey at times, but he has gained over 11 strokes putting at the RBC Heritage in five appearances. If he can continue to the solid tee to green play and finally drop some putts, he should find himself in contention at a course where he already has three top-10 finishes.
Top-40 Bets
Tommy Fleetwood +110 (DraftKings)
I know this is a strong field, but we are getting plus odds on Tommy Fleetwood to finish in the top 40. I certainly think there's more than a 50% chance of this happening (as do the other sportsbooks). In fact, he's finished in the top 40 in nine of his last 13 starts worldwide. He's been playing some good golf this year and has finished in the top 25 in two of three trips to Harbour Town.
Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 40 |
Wyndham Clark +180 (FanDuel)
In terms of value, this might be my favorite bet of the week. Clark has quietly gone 12 straight PGA Tour events without missing a cut. During that stretch, he has 11 finishes in the top 40. He went from being a bomber/putter specialist to having a solid all-around game in a span of a few months. He's also a perfect 4-for-4 at Harbour Town in his career.
As always, thanks for reading and good luck this week at the RBC Heritage.
Pick: Wyndham Clark Top 40 |
