2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Best Bets: Expert Picks for Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg & Thomas Detry

Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic odds board and found their favorite picks for Detroit Golf Club.

Below, they break down the golfers they're backing to win outright along with players they are fading and other best bets.

Check out our Action Network golf betting experts' picks and previews for the 2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic below, including picks for Ludvig Aberg, Hideki Matsuyama, Thomas Detry, Callum Tarren & more.

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Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Justin Thomas
• Matt Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama
• Spencer Aguiar: Sungjae Im
• Nick Bretwisch: Rickie Fowler

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Austin Eckroat
• Vincenzi: Adam Hadwin
• Aguiar: Thomas Detry
• Bretwisch: Thomas Detry

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Brian Harman
• Vincenzi: Tom Kim
• Aguiar: Brandon Wu
• Bretwisch: Carson Young

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Taylor Pendrith
• Vincenzi: Kevin Yu
• Aguiar: Ben Griffin
• Bretwisch: Callum Tarren

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Bryson DeChambeau captured the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic as a 6/1 favorite, according to the archives at golfodds.com. During that season, he ranked first in both Strokes Gained: Off the Tee and Driving Distance. The player who finished runner-up that week, Matthew Wolff, was 12th and ninth in those two categories, respectively.

The next year, Cam Davis won his first title in Detroit, during a season in which he was 19th Off the Tee and 32nd in Driving Distance. Joaquin Niemann, one of two runners-up, ranked 13th and 14th in those two metrics.

Last year, though, might’ve been the greatest showcase yet of the delineation between the best drivers in the field and everyone else. Tony Finau earned a convincing five-stroke victory over Cameron Young, Patrick Cantlay and Taylor Pendrith. Each of those four players ranked among the top 17 Off the Tee for the season and the top 40 in Driving Distance.

All of which offers a strong suggestion for this week’s festivities in Detroit.

As the PGA Tour extends into the dog days between the last regular-season designated event and the final major championship, I’ll be targeting underrated and unheralded SG: Off the Tee bombers for my betting card, DFS lineups, OAD picks and everything else.

Aguiar: Distance is noteworthy here this week because of the 12-yard enhancement in off the tee, but I don't think it is the only answer you should look for when handicapping this board.

Players will receive an 11.3% increase in wedges from 0-150 yards at Detroit Golf Club over the PGA Tour average, which plays into the nearly five percent boost that gets realized in Strokes Gained: Putting. That combination of short-iron play and the ability to make putts will account for almost 75% of the dispersion of scoring.

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2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Sobel: Ludvig Aberg Outright +4500 (bet365)

There are plenty of big names and worthy candidates near the top of this week’s odds board, and I won’t deny that I might have a small outright play on Justin Thomas, Sungjae Im or Cam Davis by the time Thursday morning rolls around, but my favorite short-numbered outright for this event is longer than usual.

There are a few reasons for this: 1) I don’t completely love any of the players with shorter odds; 2) Starting the card with a player who owns a longer price allows us the flexibility to add a few others; and 3) It might be time for Ludvig Aberg to pop. The current situation reminds me of the summer of 2019, when newly turned professionals Matthew Wolff and Collin Morikawa spawned on inferior fields filled with players either drained toward the end of a long season or frazzled at what a poor finish might render.

A former No. 1-ranked amateur in the world, Aberg isn’t just talented, he’s exactly what we’re seeking this week – a guy who’s freakishly long off the tee without losing much accuracy, which has led to a positive Strokes Gained number with his driver in five starts against professional fields this year.

That includes top-25 finishes in three of his last four PGA Tour appearances, though none better than 24th place, which only leaves me slightly worried that an outright play is too idealistic at this particular juncture in his young career. Those concerns don’t outweigh the prospect of cashing him at a nice price point, though.

The Swede has superstar written all over him, and he’s won at every level he’s played. We’ve already seen Rose Zhang win immediately as a professional on the LPGA Tour, while Adrien Dumont de Chassart and Ricky Castillo have done so on the Korn Ferry circuit. Don’t be surprised if – or perhaps when – Aberg follows that trend.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg Outright

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Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama Outright +1900 (bet365)

Hideki Matsuyama's previous health concerns have seemingly gone away, and he's really rounding into some of the best form we've seen in a long while. He hasn't quite gotten deep into contention yet this season, but his game is trending sharply in a positive direction.

In his past five events, Hideki has gained an average of 5.1 strokes on approach per start. Those are the peak level 'Deki numbers that have indicated a win is coming in the past, and I believe Detroit Golf Club makes a lot of sense as a spot for him.

Matsuyama has played at Detroit Golf Club a few times in the past, and with encouraging results. He finished 13th here in 2019 and 20th in 2020. The event can certainly turn into a birdie fest, and Hideki isn't the first player I'd consider backing in a low-scoring event, but two of his wins have come at a winning score of -23, including the Sony Open in 2022.

I've been all over Hideki of late, and I believe I need to ride it out one more week considering how productive he's been on approach this summer.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright

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Aguiar: Thomas Detry Top 40 +130 (bet365)

Rumor has it that I will acquire significant stakeholder equity in Action Network if Thomas Detry can do the impossible and finally win on the PGA Tour. We aren't going to need that level of upside here for a top-40 wager at +130, but I decided to play him in all sectors of the market, including as an outright bet in the triple-digit zone.

My numbers saw this eerily similar profile that mimicked the version of Cameron Davis two years ago when I looked into his ability to create opportunities from within 150 yards and drive for distance. In fairness, he is more of that 1B version of what Davis presented because his iron play isn't quite as strong, but each man landed as top-10 win equity options and got priced in my model at nearly the identical 50/1 number to win this event.

I have talked a lot about realizing your expected equity by increasing some of your totals to be marginally more aggressive in spots where you have a greater edge, and I will do that here by swinging for the fence on Detry.

Bretwisch: Callum Tarren Top 40 +270 (FanDuel)

The Englishmen finished 20th in his debut at Detroit Golf Club last year and is primed for another solid finish at a long price. Tarren is coming off of an elite ball-striking tournament at the Travelers Championship after a solid performance at the RBC Canadian Open and can now let the driver do the talking at the bomb-and-gouge Donald Ross setup.

I have him proper in this market at +210 and will take the perceived 60-point edge here this week.