2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Odds & Picks: Course Fits Include Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Hadwin, Austin Eckroat

For the fifth consecutive year, the PGA Tour heads to Detroit Golf Club for the Rocket Mortgage Classic.

A Donald Ross design, Detroit Golf Club features a 7,370-yard par 72 layout. The course is extremely flat throughout and has Bentgrass greens. The front and back nines present quite differently, with the front being tree-lined and the back having a wide-open setup.

The event will likely be a low-scoring affair considering the course has offered very little in terms of resistance in the first four editions of the tournament.

The Rocket Mortgage Classic is scheduled to play host to 156 entrants, including Tony Finau, Max Homa, Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Sungjae Im and Rickie Fowler.

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Past Winners at Rocket Mortgage Classic

• 2022: Tony Finau (-26)
• 2021: Cameron Davis (-18)
• 2020: Bryson DeChambeau (-23)
• 2019: Nate Lashley (-25)

5 Key Stats For Detroit Golf Club

Let's take a look at five key metrics for Detroit Golf Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Off The Tee

Most of the holes on the back nine at Detroit Golf Club are wide open, which really favors the big hitters. Players who fit that mold — like Tony Finau, Bryson DeChambeau, Matthew Wolff, Joaquin Niemann and Cameron Davis — have had plenty of success at the course.

SG: OTT Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Byeong Hun An (+21.2)
2. Brent Grant (+18.8)
3. Garrick Higgo (+18.3)
4. Seonghyeon Kim (+17.9)
5. Kevin Yu (+17.7)

2. Strokes Gained: Approach

Using approach in our statistics will be a good indicator of current form, as it almost always is. At a course where most golfers will be playing from the fairway, proximity to the hole will be the separator.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Mark Hubbard (+31.0)
2. Collin Morikawa (+30.2)
3. Hideki Matsuyama (+26.7)
4. Tony Finau (+22.0)
5. Nate Lashley (+20.3)

3. Strokes Gained: Par-5

With four par-5s on the course that average under par, taking advantage of these easy holes will be a requirement to contend.

SG: Par-5 Past 24 rounds:

1. Kevin Chappell (+19.6)
2. Rickie Fowler (+16.4)
3. Dylan Wu (+15.6)
4. Andrew Putnam (+13.9)
5. Ludvig Aberg (+13.4)

4. Birdie or Better

The Rocket Mortgage Classic will be a birdie-fest this year. Three of the four events here have eclipsed -20, and 2021 got close, but a windy Round 3 kept it just below. It will take birdies in bunches — and potentially a few eagles — to win this event.

Birdie or Better: Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Rickie Fowler (+22.4)
2. Will Gordon (+17.6)
3. Dylan Wu (+17.4)
4. Scott Piercy (17.2
5. Ben Martin (+16.9)

5. Strokes Gained: Total Donald Ross Designs

Detroit Golf Club is a Donald Ross design. Many golfers who play Ross designs well do so on a regular basis.

SG: Donald Ross Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Chris Kirk (+34.5)
2. Sungjae Im (+31.5)
3. Justin Thomas (+30.6)
4. Tom Kim (+26.8)
5. Taylor Moore (+22.2)

The Rocket Mortgage Classic Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: OTT (25%), SG: Approach (22%), Birdie or Better (20%), SG: Par-5 (16.9%) and SG: Donald Ross (17.2%).

1. Tom Kim
2. Rickie Fowler
3. Tony Finau 
4. Byeong-Hun An
5. Cameron Davis
6. Collin Morikawa
7. Taylor Moore
8. Kevin Yu
9. Sungjae Im
10. Hideki Matsuyama

2023 Rocket Mortgage Classic Picks

Hideki Matsuyama (+1800) (BetMGM)

Hideki Matsuyama's previous health concerns have seemingly gone away and he's really rounding into some of the best form we've seen in a long while. He hasn't quite gotten deep into contention yet this season, but his game in trending sharply in a positive direction.

In his past five events, Matsuyama has gained an average of 5.1 strokes on approach per start. Those are the peak-level 'Deki numbers that have indicated a win is coming in the past, and I believe Detroit Golf Club makes a lot of sense as a spot for him.

Matsuyama has played at Detroit Golf Club a few times, and with encouraging results. He finished 13th in 2019 and 20th in 2020. The event can certainly turn into a "birdie-fest", and Matsuyama isn't the first player I'd consider backing in a low-scoring event, but two of his wins have come at a winning score of -23, including the Sony Open in 2022.

I've been all over Matsuyama of late, and I believe I need to ride it out one more week considering how productive he's been on approach this summer.

Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright

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Ludvig Aberg (+5000) (BetMGM)

I've bet on Ludvig Aberg in his first two professional starts, and he's shown nothing that would dissuade me from going back to the well.

In the four years that Detroit Country Club has been a Tour stop, players who are strong off the tee have excelled, and the Swede fits that mold perfectly. The 23-year-old absolutely crushes the ball off the tee; he has gained 6.2 and 4.2, respectively, in the category in his first two starts.

I was high on Aberg last week, and he played well, finishing 24th. However, the Travelers Championship field was loaded with all of the best players on Tour, which made winning difficult for such an inexperienced player.

The field this week pales in comparison to what we saw in Connecticut, so Aberg's chances of winning are much more realistic.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg Outright

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Austin Eckroat (+6000) (BetMGM)

Coming out of college, Austin Eckroat was a very highly regarded prospect. Eckroat was a member of Oklahoma State’s 2018 NCAA title team alongside Viktor Hovland and Matthew Wolff. His career as a professional hasn't started as fast as the other two, but I believe Eckroat has a great deal of unfilled potential.

The 24-year-old has finishes of 2nd, 16th, 30th, 10th and 24th in his last five starts. The recent consistency is a great sign for Eckroat, who now will be playing in a field that isn't loaded top to bottom with all of the Tour's best players.

In the aforementioned five starts, he's gained an average of 5.2 strokes from tee to green, 2.4 strokes off the tee and 1.9 strokes on approach. Eckroat is a well-rounded player who's shown the ability to have spike weeks with the putter this season. He's also done his best putting work on Bentgrass greens, which he'll see this week.

Eckroat could accelerate his career this week with a win.

Pick: Austin Eckroat Outright

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Adam Hadwin (+6000) (Caesars)

Adam Hadwin is quietly playing some pretty good golf of late. He finished 12th two starts ago at the Canadian Open and he has gained an average of 2.3 strokes on approach in his past five starts.

Good putters have fared well at Detroit Golf Club, and the Canadian has been a very good putter throughout his career.

Hadwin finished fourth at Detroit Golf Club back in 2020, and he also finished fourth at the 3M Open in 2019, which is an event that's produced some very similar leaderboards to the Rocket Mortgage Classic. Although he only has one PGA Tour win, Hadwin has had a lot of close calls on some of the easier courses on Tour. He's finished runner-up at PGA West and Silverado, which usually feature winning scores close to -20.

We've already had four Canadian winners in the 2022-2023 season. Adam Hadwin could make it a fifth if he gets it done in Detroit.

Pick: Adam Hadwin Outright

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Byeong-Hun An (+6500) (FanDuel)

I've already mentioned how important Strokes Gained: Off the Tee has been at Detroit Golf Club, and no one in the field is hitting it better off the tee than Byeong-Hun An. In his past five events, the South Korean has gained an average of 2.9 strokes off the tee per event, as well as 5.6 strokes from tee to green.

The statistics for An have been phenomenal, and the finishes prior to last week's Travelers Championship have been very strong as well. He finished 14th at the AT&T Byron Nelson, 21st at the Charles Schwab Challenge and 24th at the Memorial Tournament. The missed cut at the Travelers isn't a major concern considering he still gained strokes in just about every statistical category.

An has also showed that he likes the course, finishing 13th here back in 2019. That finish was after a missed cut at the Travelers, and he went on to finish third at Sedgefield Country Club a few weeks later, which is another Donald Ross-designed course.

It may be a big ask considering An's history, but if he can gain a few strokes putting this week, I believe the Rocket Mortgage Classic is the ideal spot for him to finally get his long coveted first PGA Tour victory.

Pick: Byeong Hun An

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