Sometimes value leads to a winner like Wyndham Clark at the U.S. Open, but other times it implodes and results in an outcome that becomes Thomas Detry at the Rocket Mortgage Classic.
It's hard to defend my Detry pick, but I'm always going to try and find mispriced long shots and take a swing when the opportunity presents itself.
I will try to get back on track in the DFS market as I don't see much value on the betting slate. But, let's talk about a handful of golfers who landed on each side of the equation through two rounds.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Overachievers
I tried to avoid some of the more obvious fade candidates in an attempt to bypass an article that states the obvious. Any name included below is overachieving by more than five shots, according to my model.
Taylor Moore (+8.29 Shots Greater Than Expectation)
I don't believe Taylor Moore is as natural a fade candidate as some of the names on this list. Moore's position on the leaderboard will be where the massive disparity enters the mix as he's overachieving his short game by 8.29 strokes.
It is worth noting that Moore has found a way to gain off-the-tee during his two rounds. That should have been marginally expected for a golfer who cracked the top 35 of my model for projected strokes gained off-the-tee pre-event, though the issue has stemmed from the rather predictable iron play that saw him lose nearly two shots to the field on Friday.
I'm not necessarily looking to take him on in head-to-head matchups because of his positive trajectory in my data. Still, that doesn't mean I'm rushing to the board to back him.
My data believes Moore would need an overhaul in how he is gaining strokes if he wants to walk out of Detroit with the title. Nevertheless, the general intrigue my math has had on him all week is predictive enough that he lands as nothing more than a DFS fade who will hopefully regress to the mean on Saturday.
Adam Hadwin (+7.23 Shots Greater Than Expectation)
It pains me to include Adam Hadwin on this list because my pre-tournament data drove him up the board and into a position that pushed the 35-year-old as one of the last cuts that didn't make my outright card. Hadwin eventually landed as one of my seven highest exposures on the slate in DFS contests, but it is hard to call his ball-striking anything other than bad through two rounds.
The Canadian has failed to crack the top 100 on either day in strokes gained combined off-the-tee and approach, and his 97th-place recalculation for 'Baseline Putt + ATG Score' presents a selection that has performed at a level that should have missed the weekend.
Simply put, it feels like something is about to burst.
MJ Daffue (+5.75 Shots Greater Than Expectation)
MJ Daffue has often been a name DFS users have liked as a dirt-cheap option near the bottom of the board.
Maybe this is the one of the more obvious fade examples in this story, but his 107th-place rating in projected score through two days saw him overachieve by over 80 spots on the leaderboard. That isn't as egregious as what we've seen from Andrew Landry or Matthias Schwab, but I'll look to fade all three of them over the weekend.
Underachievers
These answers are a little more straightforward.
Max Homa (Should Be 14 Spots Better on Leaderboard)
We are now working on a three-tournament stretch in which Max Homa's play hasn't equated to the leaderboard.
Back-to-back missed cuts at the Travelers and U.S. Open were undone by two of the most significant underachieving performances in the field. While this performance isn't quite as outlandish as those other events (a projected 15th-place standing versus 29th), it continues a run of him not over-performing on any day. That is bound to change — and will in a big way — when he makes a few putts. I wouldn't be shocked if that comes Saturday.
Alex Smalley (Should Be 20 Spots Better on Leaderboard)
Alex Smalley has gone from a golfer who was overpriced and overowned pre-event, to one who is still too expensive, but wildly under the radar because nobody wants to use him at the salary cost.
My model has seen him steadily climb over the opening two days and he's now a top 15 head-to-head value on the board.
It may be time for Smalley to turn in a better day on the greens, which could generate a top-10 scoring output if the pieces come together.
Greyson Sigg (Should Only Be 2 Spots Better, but Pre-Tournament Profile Provides Boost)
Instead of playing the lower-tiered names who have already popped and moved up the leaderboard, I prefer pivoting to an option like Greyson Sigg.
You aren't going to find anything in his in-tournament profile that suggests the ceiling is as high as my model will offer, but the math in my sheet has Sigg as the 29th-rated head-to-head commodity on the board.
That lands below only Adam Svensson and Justin Lower in the $6,000 section on DraftKings, making all three men intriguing when looking for dart-throw options.
