Many of the sentiments I wrote about in Friday night's article about Max Homa, Alex Smalley and Greyson Sigg remain true for Sunday.
It has been a frustrating event for that trio as each continues to unravel on and around the green. We saw them combine to gain nearly seven shots on the field with their drivers and irons on Saturday, but were unable to earn significant strokes with any short-game metric.
I continue to believe something is about to hit in a big way for each when we talk about DFS contests and their ability to skyrocket up the leaderboard. I can't imagine we'll see proper ownership on any of them for a multitude of reasons, including positional points being overrated on Sunday. However, I will be massively involved in those names one more time this week.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Is it Finally Rickie Fowler's Time?
At odds as low as +100, the market has taken a strong stance that this might finally be Rickie Fowler's week to get back into the winner's circle.
We last witnessed Fowler lifting the trophy at the 2019 Waste Management Open. Obviously, that is a long time between victories if Fowler can shake off the cobwebs Sunday, but just how likely is it that the American gets himself across the finish line?
According to my model, there's roughly a 54% chance Fowler comes away with the Rocket Mortgage Classic victory. I am generally okay with backing Taylor Pendrith since he and Fowler landed as the top two in this field for projected scoring when allowing baseline short-game totals over the actual performances. Still, there remains an issue with most of the other chasers as either their pre-tournament rank is too low, or their in-tournament data is too shaky.
At some point, you have to listen to the numbers and I believe Fowler's roughly 50% implied projection is still a little shallow as my math thinks he should be over 4% more likely to win this event than the numbers we are getting at some books.
None of that suggests a wager is a must, but I'll be keeping an eye on live odds and will figure out if there is a natural entry point to get a small wager going on the 34-year-old.
