RSM Classic Outright Picks
The three outright bets I released earlier in the week have each moved significantly. Beating a closing line is a good thing, but missing those original prices and jumping into the mix late would be the suboptimal route.
We can make all the jokes we want about closing-line value and how it doesn't pay the bills, but there is a long-term edge to be found when you can get the best of a number.
With all those shifts, we have experienced the opposite end of the equation elsewhere, with particular golfers becoming much more intriguing than we encountered at the opener. A few names suddenly entered value for me, but I will go with a golfer experiencing the most stark contrast in Cameron Young at 24/1.
Young has been a steady value in my model most weeks because of his high-end potential that has yet to come to fruition. His first-place rank for projected scoring to mimic Sea Island Golf Club may be a surprising answer to some because his weapon of distance off the tee is marginally reduced at a venue of this nature.
On the other hand, his massive jumps in putting at similar green complexes and projected iron proximity more than make up for his lessened distance advantage.
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I was planning to save room on my card (which there is still some) to add a player like Young after round one, but the 16/1 to 24/1 move did that for me before a ball was struck. The market is undervaluing the impact that caddie Paul Tesori may have on Young's bag at a venue where he and Webb Simpson posted multiple top-10 outings over the past 10 years.
Here's how my outright card stands after adding the Wake Forest product.
| Golfer & Odds | Risk | Win |
|---|---|---|
| Russell Henley +2400 | 0.3 | 7.2 |
| Brendon Todd +5500 | 0.13 | 7.15 |
| Zac Blair +30000 | 0.05 | 15 |
| Cameron Young +2400 | 0.3 | 7.2 |
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
RSM Classic Thursday Matchup Pick
Chesson Hadley +114 over Luke List (DraftKings)
I clearly have been much lower than the consensus on Luke List throughout his recent surge. Seven consecutive made cuts, including a win at the Sanderson Farms Championship, have propelled the American into a weekly top-40 candidate.
That is one of the reasons all markets are taking this shift in pushing List into a different range on the betting board during most events from what we had become accustomed to throughout the past handful of years.
Tthat is worth noting since there is a fine line between the inevitable overcorrections from shops and the inability to account for the modifications that could leave your model with inferior data.
Essentially, you don't want to solely follow the uptick in recent performances because the value is gone from the wager once it is public knowledge – just like you don't want to be so far behind with the move that you find yourself unjustifiably fading a golfer every week.
I am more inclined to land on the latter of the equation since I run my data from a rolling two-year perspective and often am trying to take advantage of the egregious recency bias that enters the mix. You don't have to look any further than me doing this with List himself the last few weeks, but this was the first time my model returned an answer of pure chaos over just the overinflated expectation.
List graded as the most significantly mispriced option on the board because of the Projected Strokes Gained output that landed him outside the top 100 for the week. Most of that return stemmed from the removal of his driver plus the over 6% decrease he will experience in proximity from outside of 175 yards.
If you remove the top-two qualities from List's game, he suddenly needs his reformed putter to carry the load. It is challenging to tell precisely how List has excelled lately because of the lack of ShotLink information over these last few events. However, I don't love that he fell to the bottom five for weighted putting on similar green complexes in the past.
Maybe that is the blatant disregard for the most recent returns being better than the baseline that I try not to fall victim to weekly. Still, a course that removes his strengths off the tee and outside 175 yards while not being historically great for his current positive trend with the flatstick are not ideal for his expected output at the RSM Classic.
My model would have had these odds quite literally flipped from what DraftKings released in round one as I believe Hadley should be favored instead. The safety metrics did save List from that total being worse, but I will take one unit to try and win 1.14 on a bet that has some value.
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