After a robust fall season that saw us hit three outright winners in seven weeks, it looks like the year will end with more of a whimper than an explosion unless Cameron Young or Brendon Todd get into the winner's circle.
Weeks like this can transpire for a plethora of reasons, but I don't necessarily think our thought process was flawed. We knew about the 8% increase of putts that would get made from over 10 feet over a standard contest and that data naturally shifted us into one of those dreaded putting weeks if our options went cold with the flat stick.
I tried to calculate more of that pitch-and-putt narrative to overcome some of the natural volatility of a split-course rotation. However, anyone we backed ended up posting some of the most atrocious short-game returns imaginable.
Both head-to-head fades of Luke List weren't meant to be as Chesson Hadley faltered during the in-tournament bet Thursday and Keith Mitchell lost 3.44 strokes with his short game for the 72-hole wager on Friday.
Zac Blair, one of my most significant exposures, posted the 16th-best ball-striking day of anyone in the field at Sea Island, but collapsed with his typically consistent top-15 putting return and missed the cut.
And then we had the Thursday crumbling of Russell Henley, who posted the second-worst around-the-green and putting combination of anyone in the field, dropping 4.83 shots. Henley was able to rally on Friday to get himself into the weekend, but days like that are challenging to overcome when we are focused solely on equity in the outright market.
We will end the season with a seventh consecutive winning year, but the golf market has found itself a little more challenging to crack since we are no longer looking at a niche industry. Books have partnered with the PGA Tour and hidden a lot of data that we used to be able to use to our advantage.
It will take adjusting in 2024 to overcome the onslaught of no-cut tournaments, but I remain optimistic that proper research and effort will continue to lead us to success success.
Value is found over the course of a year, not a week. Just like a bankroll is built over a career, not an event.
Pre-Tournament Head-To-Head
In-Tournament Head-To-Head
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
RSM Classic Stat Leaders
Only one of the first two days were held at Sea Island and the Plantation course didn't have StatTracker present. All numbers reflect how players performed at Sea Island since both weekend rounds will be held there.
All players with a red "MC" ended up missing the cut.
Strokes Gained Off The Tee
Strokes Gained Approach
Strokes Gained Around The Green
Strokes Gained Putting
