Thirty years. That’s how long it’s been since the United States has won the Ryder Cup on European soil.
The last time it happened was the first time the event was televised live on U.S. television – on cable, no less. Players were hitting persimmon-head drivers, and Tiger Woods was still in high school.
There isn’t another rivalry in all of sports in which one team hasn’t lost on home soil in three decades and yet the other team remains favored in the betting markets in these scenarios every four years.
That’s exactly the case once again this week, though, as the Americans head to Marco Simone Golf & Country Club in Rome, Italy, as a slight favorite over a European side featuring the likes of Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland.
Hey, at least the odds are a bit tighter now. As recently as a couple of months ago, Europe was trading as long as +200 to win the Ryder Cup back.
While the question on every casual golf fan’s mind is, “Who’s going to win?” bettors are trying to find an edge in prop markets. Let’s break down a bunch of ‘em, with picks to cash in each one.
To Hit First U.S. Tee Shot: Jordan Spieth +650
I’ll start this one with a caveat: I’m writing this preview before the week has even started, so we’ve yet to receive any true intel from the U.S. Team room. Of course, any whispers that go public will immediately alter the betting odds, so there’s certainly some risk in waiting.
Of the 10 matches which Jordan Spieth and Justin Thomas have played together in the Ryder/Presidents Cup, they’ve been first off the box in three of them. Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay have slotted into this spot at times, as well, and could once again for Friday morning’s foursomes (also known as alternate shot) session.
However, the more dynamic duo of Spieth/Thomas might have a better chance of quelling any early crowd momentum – or at least, that’s how I think U.S. captain Zach Johnson will see it.
As for the first tee shot, Spieth has been more consistent driving the ball than his buddy JT, so I think there’s value in believing the latter might not want the bright glare of that opening shot – and it also gives the team a chance at having Spieth putt first and perhaps more often, should the match only play an odd number of holes.
Anytime we’re betting on a captain’s decision over something which takes place on-course, there’s some guesswork involved, but at least this one is an educated guess.
To Hit First Europe Tee Shot: Shane Lowry +1400
As of the time of this writing, I believe that Europe’s pairings are a little tougher to decipher than those of the Americans, although this picture will become much clearer as the week progresses and we witness some of the practice sessions.
There’s an excellent chance that Rory McIlroy will partner with his buddy Shane Lowry, at least in the foursomes format. Conventional wisdom might suggest that McIlroy, the team’s leader, will hit the first tee shot on home soil, but his odds are four times shorter than those of Lowry.
At 14/1, as opposed to 7/2 for Rory, I’ll take a chance that Lowry just happens to like teeing off on the odd-numbered holes while his partner takes the evens. Even if McIlroy makes more sense in this market, it’s not like a seasoned veteran and major champion such as Lowry can’t handle the heat of the moment.
Top U.S. Points Scorer: Xander Schauffele +600
The first trick in trying to predict a top points scorer for this event is to understand which players are going to have the most chances. Quantity doesn’t always beat quality, but I’d rather take a shot on a guy who’s likely to play five matches over one who might only play two or three.
That said, if we read between the lines, it wouldn’t come as a surprise if the U.S. team rests every player for at least one session during the first two days. Johnson and his cadre of vice captains returned from a scouting trip to Marco Simone three weeks ago and uniformly spoke about what a brutal walk it is and how tough it can be on a player physically, as if they’re already setting up the potential of nobody playing five matches.
That should level the playing field when it comes to making a pick in this category, but I’m still not diving too far down the list.
Schauffele has a few things going for him: Experience competing in these events previously; a successful partnership with Patrick Cantlay; and a skillset which doesn’t show any holes in his game, essentially offering a high floor in any match-play situation.
Assuming they do indeed play together for three partnered matches, Cantlay could make some sense here at 11/2, but I’ll take Schauffele at a half-point longer, as I have just a slight bit more faith in his overall game.
Top U.S. Points Scorer (Longshot): Rickie Fowler +1600
I’ll list two players from each team in this category, for those who don’t want to pay up for one of the favorites. As mentioned above, there’s reason to believe no American will play more than four matches, which means that even a player who goes 3-0-0 could cash this ticket.
Fowler is the most malleable member of this roster, capable of playing with any of the other 11 players and just as handy in foursomes as four-balls. His prior Ryder Cup record of 3-7-5 leaves something to be desired, but it should similarly have him motivated to turn it around.
This is my favorite play in the case of European domination – if all the big guns get taken down for the U.S. squad, the player with the most points at the end could be one who snuck his way to that finish line.
Top Europe Points Scorer: Rory McIlroy +450
Unlike the U.S. Team, which might be stronger in its bottom half, European captain Luke Donald will need to rely on his best players in order to win outright. It’s difficult to believe that Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm and Viktor Hovland won’t each play five matches unless their games completely fizzle – and that might be the case for Tyrrell Hatton and Tommy Fleetwood, too.
Over the past four months, McIlroy has been remarkably consistent, posting nine top-10 finishes in 11 starts and nothing worse than a 16th-place finish. Perhaps none of that matters when it comes to this week, but the man with a 12-12-4 Ryder Cup record wants to step on that gas pedal early and often here.
Consider this my Occam’s Razor play of the week – sometimes the simplest explanation is the easiest to verify.
Top Europe Points Scorer (Longshot): Shane Lowry +1800
If, as I stated above, Lowry does indeed pair with McIlroy in the partnered matches to start, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see one victory lead to another go-‘round, then another and another.
Though he didn’t have a great season on the PGA Tour, Lowry’s “struggles” were overblown, as he remained consistent without ever really peaking. There’s an opportunity here for Lowry to essentially ride Rory’s coattails for parts of the first two days, then win his singles match to cash this ticket.
It wouldn’t be wholly unlike five years ago, when Tommy Fleetwood might’ve outplayed partner Francesco Molinari a little bit during their four matches together, but the latter won his singles match to claim a 5-0-0 record and earn top-scorer honors.
Top U.S. Team Rookie: Max Homa +175
It’s been just two months since Brian Harman dominated everyone else in The Open Championship, which makes his +550 number very enticing in this category, but I’m going to stick with the favorite here. Max Homa is a Ryder Cup rookie, but he was a hero for the American side in last year’s Presidents Cup, posting a 4-0-0 record and doing it with some flair.
Perhaps even more importantly, he’s played some of his best golf on difficult tracks bordered by thick rough, from Riviera to TPC Potomac to Torrey Pines. There’s a sense that Marco Simone could fit that theme, which makes Homa a smart play at plus-money against just three other teammates.
Top European Rookie: Sepp Straka +320
Like the U.S. team, the Europeans will also have one-third of the lineup consisting of first-timers. Ludvig Aberg is the favorite in this category for a reason – he’s been playing brilliant golf as of late, and despite having yet to even play a major championship, he looks like the game’s next big superstar in the making.
Presumably pairing with Viktor Hovland for at least a few matches should only make him more tempting here, but I’ll fade the Swede with some trepidation and take Sepp Straka at nearly three times the price instead.
The Austrian by way of Georgia should have as much familiarity with the U.S. team as anyone, already suggesting that the European team room might need to be stocked with his favorite American beer. The real reason I like him here, though, is because he tends to be an extremely streaky player. When he’s on, he’s really on – and I’m willing to take a shot on that uptick taking place this week.
Top U.S. Team Wildcard: Justin Thomas +430
Thomas was easily the most controversial captain’s pick added to the U.S. roster, but the truth is, I don’t really believe he was even the 12th man on this team, nor was his spot ever really in jeopardy, despite failing to qualify for the FedExCup Playoffs.
The critics will chalk that up to some ol’ boys’ club theory, but the supporters of this selection will understand just how much confidence Johnson and his assistants have in Thomas. He’s been a fiery team leader for the past few international competitions and will enter this one with a massive chip on his shoulder – as much wanting to beat the Europeans as wanting to prove something to the Americans who doubted him.
I’m not sure he “needed” that fifth-place finish at the Fortinet Championship two weeks ago in order to boost his confidence, but it sure as hell couldn’t hurt. Don’t be surprised if JT plays more matches than any other wildcard selection, and don’t be surprised if he plays better golf than he has all year, just weeks after taking more ownership of his swing.
Top European Wildcard: Shane Lowry +550
Trust me: I didn’t start writing this preview with the idea in mind that I was going to have Lowry tickets in so many different categories, but he just seems to fit all of them so nicely.
Tommy Fleetwood (+190) and Ludvig Aberg (+320) might be his main competition here, but putting woes and inexperience, respectively, have me looking at Lowry’s bigger price for some value.
With finishes of T3 and T18 in his last two starts – both in Europe – I see this as a nice spot for Lowry's game to finally peak after an uninspired year, just like Thomas.
To Win Outright: Europe +120
Ah, yes. The question everyone wants answered – “Who ya got?” – might be my least favorite bet on the board this week. If we can take a time machine back to July and play the Europeans at +200, there wouldn’t be many of us who’d turn it down, although as I said at the time, I like knowing whom I’m betting, and at that point, the teams were far from being decided.
We're now left with Europe as a slight home ‘dog on a continent where the team hasn’t lost since 1993. If you’re not buying into that narrative, I get it; it’s not unlike one college football team which hasn’t lost at home to another school in decades yet also hasn’t played them since any players on the current roster were out of kindergarten.
And yet, there’s still reason to believe the atmosphere, the pressure and the fan support will all offer a decided edge to the home side. There are a few keys to a European victory, but I think these are the two biggest:
- The studs have to play like studs, which means at least 3-4 points apiece from McIlroy, Rahm and Hovland.
- On a roster where players have only combined to play four previous Ryder Cup matches together – and none more than once – Donald will need to forge a few pairings which find immediate success and remain together for a few more sessions.
The outcome for this one is very nearly a toss-up, hence the tight betting odds and my subsequent apprehension to go all-in with a no-doubt-about-it pick, though I believe Europe owns the smallest of edges.
As a postscript to this pick, consider this: The Ryder Cup is often a momentum-driven event, which means the live outright odds should sway back and forth toward whichever team is winning at any given moment. If you’re wary of choosing a side pre-tournament, keep an eye on the live lines and play the other side of such momentum.
Overall Correct Points Score: Europe Wins 15-13 +1200
Once I’ve already stated that I (barely) like Europe to win outright, there aren’t many total scores from which to choose. If you see it the same way, perhaps the smart wager(s) might be to play Europe with a winning score of 14½-13½ (+1100), 15-13 (+1200) and 15½-12½ (+1200), essentially covering your bases at a number just shorter than 4/1.
If I can only choose one for the sake of this exercise, I’ll split the difference and take 15-13, if for no other reason than the symmetry. When was the last time we had that exact score at the Ryder Cup? Thirty years ago – the last time the U.S. team won on foreign soil.
