The hype for the 2023 Ryder Cup will come to a crescendo on Friday as the United States and Europe battle at Marco Simone Golf & Country Club in Italy.
Zach Johnson is looking to captain the American squad to its first win on European soil since Tom Watson led the U.S. to victory in 1993.
There are plenty of storylines this week, but early returns have left no questions around the team leaders. Rory McIlroy officially takes the role over from some of the veterans who previously led the Europeans.
Meanwhile, players on the U.S. side have made it clear why Justin Thomas, despite his poor playing form, was a vital captain's selection to this team as close friend Jordan Spieth referred to Thomas as the "backbone" of their side.
Off the course, momentum is building in the betting markets for the Europeans to continue their home-game dominance as they have moved from as far out as +200 during the season to slight favorites at many books this week.
This odds shift is an interesting and drastic turn,. I could see the value on Team Europe at decent plus-money odds, but turning them into the favorites is overboard.
Maybe it's the homer in me coming out, but as things have built into this week, my confidence in the Americans has grown, and that will be reflected in my Ryder Cup picks and best bets below.
Ryder Cup Picks
United States of America +110 Over Europe (Tie Loses | FanDuel)
I'll take the plus-money odds on what to me is the better team any way you cut it.
This is a year where these teams' skillsets are much more similar than we've seen in the past because the Europeans have more bombers than ever.
The course setup tends to confirm that as there is more room off the tee than in previous Ryder Cups overseas. The transition from the experienced Europeans who served as a heartbeat to their side, such as Ian Poulter and Sergio Garcia, will be tough to replace in this year's version as young talents like Nicolai Hojgaard and Ludvig Aberg get their feet wet.
The Americans have plenty of first-timers as well, but some of them gained exposure to this style of tournament in the Presidents Cup last fall, and others like Brian Harman may actually benefit from the European setup.
I'll happily take the stand that this talented Team USA comes together better than prior versions, and the odds make it a pretty easy decision for me this week as a slight underdog on the three-way moneyline at +110.
Justin Thomas +900 First USA Player Out in Singles (BetMGM)
This is my favorite bet of the week as I think Zach Johnson will want to make a statement to his team and about his most controversial captain's pick on Sunday.
The premise behind this pick was Thomas' leadership in the team room. As the Europeans have sent out McIlroy in each of the last four Ryder Cups (he's a solid bet at +150 to go out first for the Euros too), I think we see an opening Rory vs. JT rematch as they went out to open the 2018 Ryder Cup, which was won by Thomas 1 up.
There's precedence for this from 2018, and both Johnson and Thomas will look to make a statement in the opening match on Sunday.
Xander Schauffele +625 Top USA Points Scorer (Caesars)
While Spieth and Thomas get a lot of the attention, it's the tandem of Xander Schauffele and Patrick Cantlay that will pair up possibly in every session this week. They have a dominant record in these team formats across the Ryder and Presidents Cups as well as a title in the 2022 Zurich Classic of New Orleans on the PGA Tour.
Schauffele is a strong bet to play in all sessions this week, and his form closing out the PGA Tour season, along with his comfort playing alongside Cantlay, gives me a lot of confidence in his ability to produce in a big way for the Americans this weekend.
