I always talk about not needing to be perfect in every market to find success during an event. That's one of the reasons I systematically build out a card to give myself ample opportunities for long-term success and place the bulk of my exposure in more sustainable areas like matchups and placement wagers. Still, it doesn't always work out the way I'd like.
There is really no other way around things this week. It has been a BRUTAL three-day stretch inside the head-to-head space. However, even the most dim cards usually present some sort of get-out-of-jail opportunity before all four days have come to a culmination.
However, I don't want to aggressively attack Sunday's card when most of the returns I have experienced so far have been disappointing and I don't love where my model is sitting this week.
I will keep this article strictly toward DFS talk, but feel free to look for any potential value you may find on these names in various avenues.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
DFS Underachievers Round 4
Stephan Jaeger
I feel bettors were split across the board entering this tournament. Half the people in the industry were saying that Stephan Jaeger being listed anywhere between 20-25/1 was a fool's gold spot since his one top-10 finish in 24 starts couldn't overcome his 14 consecutive made cuts. Then, there were people like me, saying this would be his coming out party after he gained strokes with his typically inferior putter in six of his previous nine tournaments.
I don't have regrets of going down that road because I've been high on Jaeger for a while now. The upside he showed in my model for expectation on fast Bermuda only heightened that feeling, but it shouldn't come as a shock that things resulted in a poor putting week. Jaeger is only ever going to go as far as the flat stick allows, and I will chalk this up as nothing more than the bad rearing its head in a situation that could have generated real upside if the pieces were put together in a different fashion.
We have seen that this week with Jaeger landing a respectable 24th in ball-striking. That is lower than I would have predicted, but the -3.19 shots on the greens has him ahead of only Trevor Cone and Callum Tarren in Strokes Gained: Putting of those who made the weekend.
There is always a chance the trend continues Sunday since we aren't talking about a putter with a high baseline projection, but the 50-spot difference in actual outcome versus anticipated performance — when taking into account all ball-striking data — is too difficult for me to ignore since most gamers won't want to pay up for a golfer outside the top 60 on the leaderboard.
Beau Hossler
From highlighting a bad putter in Jaeger, to one of the better ones in Beau Hossler. However, the same disappointment with the flat stick has shown over three days, especially when we look at the 2.04 shots Hossler lost to the field on Saturday.
My model seems to believe a standard putting week should have placed the American inside the top five of the leaderboard when looking into his immaculate driving statistics over each round. Hossler ranked as one of only two players (Cameron Champ being the other) who gained a minimum of 0.90 shots off the tee in all three outings. That helped propel his quality par-four and par-five scoring, but it will all come down to making a few putts if Hossler wants to move up the leaderboard.
I don't think he is going to go under the radar by any means, but there is always some level of DFS users who place too much emphasis on someone's Sunday starting spot at a birdie course. I'll take whatever marginal discount I get in using Hossler over some of the other names above him on the board.
