As we look for three outright wins in as many contests after backing Ben Griffin (60/1), it's worth noting that it's been a relatively forgettable tournament in other areas.
You never want to get to the halfway point with a sheet full of losing selections, but here we are at 0-2 on pre- and in-tournament head-to-head bets, as well as a half-unit drop from my Dylan Wu top-30 shot.
Kevin Kisner at 6/1 to land a top-30, and the aforementioned Griffin wager, will give us a chance to provide a Houdini-like escape, but let's talk about some of the data and see where things stand through two rounds as we are behind the eight ball and looking claw our way back into profit.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Sanderson Farms Championship Leaderboard
It has been a slow start to the week for us in most markets, although our pre-tournament Griffing bet does hold a two-shot lead. Griffin's second-place grade for Strokes Gained: Total on fast Bermuda presented a high-end outlook for a golfer who ranked sixth in this field for strokes gained in my model over the past season. It remains to be seen if Griffin can maintain his par-five scoring, which was expected to land just inside the top 70% of the tournament, but my equity to hit a winner likely comes down to the 27-year-old. We will see if our third straight outright win can cross the finish line.
Strokes Gained: Off-The-Tee Leaders
This leaderboard has a vast disparity between the impact felt from strokes gained off the tee. Names like Henrik Norlander, Carl Yuan and Beau Hossler have found a corollary effect by taking their top 10 driving totals and turning them into spots inside the top 10 of the leaderboard. However, the opposite end of the equation can be found with Matti Schmid, Davis Riley and MJ Daffue missing the cut.
My model is curious to see if Stephan Jaeger and Beau Hossler can maintain their totals because the upside numbers are popping off the page for each.
Strokes Gained: Approach Leaders
You can see some semblance of how the Country Club of Jackson resembles a pure ball-striking course, but the random splits between missing the cut and landing inside the top 10 have generated a board that's hard to decipher.
If you're looking for playable commodities in different markets, my numbers like Tom Hoge, Ben Griffin, Russell Knox, Chad Ramey, Ludvig Aberg and Chesson Hadley from this quality approach range.
Strokes Gained: Around-The-Green Leaders
Ludvig Aberg, the generational driver of the ball, has found himself on the past two lists for around the green and approach. His driver hasn't been bad and ranks 42nd this week, but if he can reach his standard production with that portion of his game, a win could still be in sight.
Strokes Gained: Putting Leaders
Gaining strokes with a putter will never be a negative, but there are concerns when a golfer earns an excessive amount of his total in that area. Scott Stallings and Wesley Bryan may have some looming red flags since each has lost strokes when adding their off-the-tee and approach data together.
I'll be playing Peter Kuest (-110) over Scott Stallings on Bet365 for that reason.
Top Ball Strikers Through Two Rounds
