With Rory McIlroy leading the pack by one shot over young rising star Tom Kim, the leaderboard at the Scottish Open has just about everything we could ask for.
Fellow Englishman Tommy Fleetwood is two shots back of Rory and a group of five players — headlined by major winners Scottie Scheffler and Shane Lowry — are three shots back going into the final round from the Renaissance Club.
Rory looked like he may head into Sunday with a nice cushion, but a late bogey and his inability to take advantage of the par 5 15th left him with just a one-shot advantage.
Kim kept a clean card throughout his Saturday round, and it was Fleetwood who charged up the leaderboard on "Moving Day" with a 7-under 63.
Those three players will group up in the final tee time, as tournament officials decided to move things up and send the players off in groups of three from both tees in order to beat the projected heavy afternoon winds.
As someone that enjoys the carnage that that weather brings to these links courses, I'm a bit disappointed. But I think we'll still see the players exposed to plenty of that — even early on Sunday.
The weather should open the door for a number of players who are further back in the pack.
A test of patience and the ability to handle the conditions will lead us to the winner in Scotland.
Let's see if we can dial in on some players that may be in the best position to handle what Sunday will bring.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field. Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility. You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but aren’t getting putts to drop.
Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
2023 Genesis Scottish Open Round 4 Best Bets: 3 Golfers to Buy
I was on Tommy Fleetwood as my favorite bet of the week to start things on Sunday, and this is where I would put my money going into the final round.
Things really set up similar to what we saw from Sepp Straka last week, as Tommy has overcome a sluggish opening round of even par to climb his way back into contention on Friday and Saturday.
His 7-under third round was the best of the day, and it has put him just two shots back of Rory with weather conditions coming that I think favor Fleetwood.
I always think of Tommy as a guy I like to back when I want a player that can navigate the wind with just pure ball striking. He's that type of player, and it seems like Sunday will set up just perfectly for his game to shine.
Fleetwood is +700 on PointsBet to win going into the final round, which is a pretty fair number for the Englishman who's seeking his first PGA Tour victory.
Conditions like what are expected on Sunday often allow me to look at things a little differently than I would in a typical week.
While I still want a strong game tee-to-green and solid ball striking, I put a lot more value on around-the-green play and putting than I would typically.
I'll also value the experience factor with these types of courses and conditions, which is all a long way of saying that I think Shane Lowry has a chance to surprise in the final round.
The 2019 Open Champion ran away from the field in difficult conditions in his native Ireland, and we could see something similar happen on Sunday. The early start will bring rain into play — along with the winds — and Lowry is the type of player that seems built to handle that.
The Irishman hasn't had his best stuff ball striking this week — he's actually losing strokes to the field in both metrics — but his play on and around the greens has continually erased those issues.
The advantage he has on Sunday is that in these weather conditions, we can expect many missed greens and fairways by the entire field, and if his short-game prowess continues, he could find himself climbing the leaderboard while others around him falter.
The +1600 on DraftKings is by no means a good number in a typical Sunday setup, but with the other factors in play, I don't mind a stab on Lowry.
My final stop on the leaderboard will be at five shots back, but if things really get wild, we could see a bunch of players be brought back into the mix on Sunday.
The guy I'm targeting was another one of my favorites to start the week, as Tyrrell Hatton fits the mold of players I have described just above. He can grind his way through tough conditions and has shown over time to be both a great wind and links player.
When I add in the fact that there appears to be some value on the Englishman at +7500, he sets up to be a perfect long-shot pick for the final round.
Hatton didn't have his best stuff to start his round on Saturday, especially off the tee. He lost nearly two strokes from the tee box in his first four holes of the day, and even when he finally found his game in the middle of the back nine, he gave shots back with two bogeys to close the day.
If he can come out and get off to a better start on Sunday and manage his way through the weather better than most of the field, he could have a chance to post a number for the others to chase.
Hatton has the skillset to do just that. And with us getting a touch of value on him, he's an easy and cheap final-round sprinkle from five shots back.
