Here's a fun fact about the 'Welcome To Fabulous Las Vegas" sign: Betty Willis, one of Las Vegas' pioneer commercial artists, gifted the sign to the city in 1959 and wanted it to stay in the public domain.
That is one of the reasons you see the image plastered in every ad about the town, which apparently has been cemented in my brain after living here throughout my entire life because my first inclination is to always overlay my articles with either that or pictures of my alma mater winning the 1990 NCAA Championship.
While images of Jerry Tarkanian chewing on a towel and celebrating next to Larry Johnson would be something I'd love to talk about all day long, we have a golf tournament minutes away from my home that delivers more urgent information for anyone tuning into this piece.
I do want to note this week's article will be slightly different since I will be bypassing my typical first-round matchup pick here because I found it challenging to find much value in this market at legal sportsbooks this week. If you shop around, I did like Taylor Montgomery -110 over Joseph Bramlett because of Bramlett's inactivity from injury over the past few months.
There is a nonzero chance that Bramlett ends up withdrawing before all four days have been finished against the UNLV product, but before I turn that UNLV comment back into a novel about the disappointment my two-year-old self felt when Duke shocked us in the 1991 Final Four, let's touch on the more concrete data of whom I like to walk out of Vegas victorious.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Shriners Children's Open Outright Card
J.T. Poston +3000 (FanDuel)
My model had a hard time figuring out why J.T. Poston has missed four of seven cuts since 2016 at TPC Summerlin and only produced one finish better than 20th.
Poston ranked first in my sheet for Strokes Gained: Total on both TPC courses and easy scoring conditions with soft greens, making an outright consideration well worth the risk, even if I do worry that there is heightened missed cut potential because of his long-term issues finding the fairway at this course in the past.
It is never ideal when you have found yourself losing strokes off the tee in six of seven starts at a particular venue, but I am going to trust his 59-spot expected improvement in Weighted Proximity at TPC Summerlin and hope that his driver can be good enough to propel him into that top-five zone that he delivers for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total inside of my model.
Adam Schenk +3200 (bet365)
It's hard to find a golfer on Tour who has been more prime for a victory than Adam Schenk over the past few months.
Schenk's four top-seven finishes in the last seven tournaments will blend nicely with his five top-27s at this venue in six years. Add a stellar statistical profile to that, and we get the perfect blend of course history, statistical data and current form.
The last time my model saw that combination work in unison, Sahith Theegala captured the Fortinet Championship and cashed our outright tickets.
Sam Ryder +7500 (bet365)
I don't believe Sam Ryder's 2023 surge on approach play is a fluke. We can see that with an entire year of data shifting his profile inside my model.
You can never entirely discount something like that declining, which is why there is a nonzero chance he returns closer to his baseline of years past. However, assuming the iron play is here to stay, the only thing we are missing from Ryder has been his high-end putting acumen that has gone into reverse as of late.
My model had Ryder slip from sixth in this field for putting over the past season to 95th during his last 24 rounds. However, the move to a plodding Bentgrass putting surface may unlock the entire picture for a golfer who is skyrocketing up my sheet when we project his baseline stats with the flatstick over his recent struggles.
Adam Hadwin +4500 (bet365)
Adam Hadwin presents two distinct possibilities this week. Do we want to trust his course history that has produced six made cuts in seven attempts, including four top-10 finishes?
Or is this a spot where his course history has propelled him too far up the board after losing an average of 3.24 shots from tee to green over his past five tournaments?
For DFS contests, my answer would come down to ownership. That is typically the great equalizer when trying to be contrarian and create leverage. Still, I will always take a swing on the upside data for a golfer in this market when he posts a two-year running total that landed sixth in Weighted Strokes Gained and 10th in Weighted Scoring at the host course.
There is a reason Hadwin has succeeded at TPC Summerlin over the years, and perhaps the time off has done him wonders.
Eric Cole +4000 (bet365)
I have come to the realization that there may be a lack of weekly upside because of Eric Cole's driving totals. Ranking outside the top 110 of 186 qualifying players on Tour in Driving Distance and Driving Accuracy is not a positive return if you want to win a golf tournament.
Nonetheless, I will bet on the potent numbers inside of my sheet that placed him first in this field for Weighted Strokes Gained: Total. That return is worth noting since it did include 15% of my weight geared in the direction of Total Driving.
Every field is different in strength, so I don't want to make such a blanket statement, but I think my plan with Cole moving forward will be to grab him when he gets closer to this 40/1 range (or higher) and ignore him otherwise.
Chad Ramey +9000 (bet365)
I don't know how we can ignore Chad Ramey’s recent production.
Back-to-back top-28 finishes at this course will play nicely into his consecutive top-19 finishes to start the FedExCup Fall, and it is not as if the data didn’t boost an already stout profile.
Ramey landed next to Eric Cole, Vincent Norrman, Sam Ryder, Cameron Davis, S.H. Kim, J.T. Poston, Adam Schenk and Andrew Putnam as the only players in this field to grade inside the top 50 for all categories in my model this week. You can find most of those golfers in the 30/1 to 40/1 range in the outright market, but Ramey is still in the 80/1 to 90/1 range.
I do believe playing the American inside the placement market may be the more conducive way to generate long-term equity, but I will take a shot on him at any price that exceeds 90/1 because of his stout recent upside.
