After a nice appetizer for golf in Maui, we're onto our first full-field event as we looks at the 2023 Sony Open odds.
The angle here is pretty well known at this point. The winner will usually come from the group who just finished up at the Sentry Tournament of Champions.
Whether it's just the competitive rounds that help them get back into rhythm or they just happen to be better than the rest of the field because they’re coming off a win in the season prior for the most part, they definitely have an edge here.
Now, onto the Sony Open odds and our picks.
The Course
Length off the tee doesn’t play too much of a factor at Waialae Country Club, which measures just over 7,000 yards for a par 70. We’ve had shorter, inaccurate drivers like Cameron Smith, Patton Kizzire and Fabian Gomez come out on top in recent years. It’s really a second-shot golf course where a player who can get hot putting on Bermuda greens will come out on top.
It’s a vastly different course than Kapalua, which is more of a bomber’s paradise and favors strength from tee to green. Because of that, you shouldn’t just look at players who finished strong last week.
We saw that with a player like Kevin Na in 2021. He closed with a 79 and isn’t really the best fit for Kapalua, but shaking off that competitive rust is important for this week heading to a course that better suits his style of play.
It tends to play pretty easy by Tour standards unless the wind picks up. In five of the last six years, the winner needed to reach at least 20-under.
Click arrow to expand 2023 Sony Open odds via BetRivers
| Golfer | Odds |
|---|---|
| Kim, Tom | +1100 |
| Im, Sungjae | +1200 |
| Spieth, Jordan | +1600 |
| Matsuyama, Hideki | +1800 |
| Harman, Brian | +1800 |
| Henley, Russell | +2000 |
| Hoge, Tom | +2200 |
| Horschel, Billy | +2200 |
| Conners, Corey | +2200 |
| Bradley, Keegan | +3300 |
| Mitchell, Keith | +3300 |
| McNealy, Maverick | +3300 |
| Montgomery, Taylor | +3300 |
| Kyoung-Hoon Lee | +3300 |
| Scott, Adam | +3300 |
| Davis, Cameron | +3500 |
| Si Woo Kim | +4000 |
| English, Harris | +4000 |
| Spaun, J.J. | +4000 |
| Putnam, Andrew | +4500 |
| Bezuidenhout, Christiaan | +4500 |
| Kitayama, Kurt | +4500 |
| Smalley, Alex | +5000 |
| Grillo, Emiliano | +5000 |
| Poston, J.T. | +5000 |
| Kuchar, Matt | +5000 |
| Hughes, Mackenzie | +5000 |
| McCarthy, Denny | +5500 |
| Woodland, Gary | +6000 |
| Steele, Brendan | +7000 |
| Simpson, Webb | +7000 |
| Rai, Aaron | +8000 |
| Todd, Brendon | +8000 |
| Knox, Russell | +8000 |
| Svensson, Adam | +8000 |
| Hardy, Nick | +8000 |
| Buckley, Hayden | +8000 |
| Gordon, Will | +8000 |
| Kirk, Chris | +8000 |
| Sigg, Greyson | +8000 |
| Kizzire, Patton | +9000 |
| Jaeger, Stephan | +9000 |
| Palmer, Ryan | +9000 |
| Griffin, Ben | +10000 |
| Shelton, Robby | +10000 |
| Streelman, Kevin | +10000 |
| Ryder, Sam | +12500 |
| Cink, Stewart | +12500 |
| Merritt, Troy | +12500 |
| Thompson, Davis | +12500 |
| Suh, Justin | +12500 |
| Lipsky, David | +12500 |
| Armour, Ryan | +12500 |
| Taylor, Ben | +12500 |
| Bramlett, Joseph | +12500 |
| Nakajima, Keita | +15000 |
| Hubbard, Mark | +15000 |
| Martin, Ben | +15000 |
| Piercy, Scott | +15000 |
| Daffue, MJ | +15000 |
| Schenk, Adam | +15000 |
| Brandon Wu | +15000 |
| Glover, Lucas | +15000 |
| Reavie, Chez | +15000 |
| Higa, Kazuki | +15000 |
| Johnson, Zach | +15000 |
| Garnett, Brice | +15000 |
| Seong-Hyeon Kim | +15000 |
| Haley II, Paul | +17500 |
| Blair, Zac | +17500 |
| Taylor, Nick | +17500 |
| Yuan, Carl | +17500 |
| Schmid, Matti | +17500 |
| Kevin Yu | +20000 |
| Malnati, Peter | +20000 |
| Thompson, Michael | +20000 |
| Katsuragawa, Yuto | +20000 |
| Higgs, Harry | +20000 |
| Semikawa, Taiga | +20000 |
| Zecheng Dou | +20000 |
| Schwab, Matthias | +20000 |
| Barnes, Erik | +20000 |
| Lashley, Nate | +20000 |
| Streb, Robert | +20000 |
| Sabbatini, Rory | +20000 |
| Hammer, Cole | +20000 |
| Cook, Austin | +20000 |
| Lingmerth, David | +20000 |
| Kim, Michael | +20000 |
| Long, Adam | +20000 |
| Stevens, Sam | +25000 |
| Alexander, Tyson | +25000 |
| Duncan, Tyler | +25000 |
| Moore, Ryan | +25000 |
| Hadley, Chesson | +25000 |
| Lee, Danny | +25000 |
| Hickok, Kramer | +25000 |
| Eckroat, Austin | +25000 |
| Stuard, Brian | +25000 |
| Byeong Hun An | +25000 |
| Baddeley, Aaron | +25000 |
| Huh, John | +25000 |
| Tway, Kevin | +25000 |
| Redman, Doc | +25000 |
| Hall, Harry | +35000 |
| Endycott, Harrison | +35000 |
| Cole, Eric | +35000 |
| Novak, Andrew | +35000 |
| Ramey, Chad | +35000 |
| Wu, Dylan | +35000 |
| Smotherman, Austin | +35000 |
| Cone, Trevor | +35000 |
| Brehm, Ryan | +35000 |
| Kraft, Kelly | +35000 |
| Norrman, Vincent | +35000 |
| Kelly, Jerry | +35000 |
| Nunez, Augusto | +35000 |
| Onishi, Kaito | +35000 |
| Gligic, Michael | +35000 |
| Grant, Brent | +50000 |
| Stanley, Kyle | +50000 |
| McGreevy, Max | +50000 |
| Goya, Tano | +50000 |
| Echavarria, Nicolas | +50000 |
| Truslow, Austen | +50000 |
| Werbylo, Trevor | +50000 |
| Matthews, Brandon | +50000 |
| Harrington, Scott | +50000 |
| Westmoreland, Kyle | +50000 |
| Herman, Jim | +50000 |
| Werenski, Richy | +50000 |
| Roy, Kevin | +50000 |
| Walker, Jimmy | +50000 |
| Winslow, Joseph | +50000 |
| Young, Carson | +50000 |
| Okada, Kohei | +100000 |
| Akana, Blaze | +100000 |
| Guise, Danny | +100000 |
| Albertson, Anders | +100000 |
| Kyung-Ju Choi | +100000 |
| Markham, George | +100000 |
| Mueller, Jesse | +100000 |
| McLachlin, Parker | +100000 |
| Castillo, Michael | +100000 |
The Favorites
We have a couple of real threats on this course at the top in Tom Kim and Sungjae Im at +1200 and +1400 respectively. Both are great iron players and have solid short games that should fit well here. Im hasn't played well here though, starting with a 16th four years ago and getting worse in each start since. Meanwhile, this will be Kim's first attempt here and having some history on the course has been a factor most years.
Jordan Spieth and Hideki Matsuyama are next in line at +1600. Matsuyama is the defending champ here, but the ball striking still isn't really in the shape we'd like to see from him. Spieth has a checkered past here. He hasn't played since 2019 and missed the cut two of his four appearances. But he did place third in 2017.
The +2000s range is an intriguing mix that includes Corey Conners, Brian Harman, Tom Hoge and Russell Henley. Henley has a win in 2013 and probably should have won the event last year. Hoge has missed the cut in five of seven starts, but the two times he made it, he finished 12th or better. Conners hasn't finished worse than 12th in his last three starts and will probably be the most popular pick of this bunch. Harman has the skill set to really play well here. The results have been fine, but unspectacular. He's made nine cuts the last 11 years, but only has one top 10 during that time.
The Mid-Tier
This has been the range to target players in the past, so I'll start here with K.H. Lee at +4000 (PointsBet). Lee was seventh last week on a course that was the best fit for him. But his short game appeared pretty dialed in and his ball striking hovered around the field average against many of the top names. So I'll take a shot with him here.
Next up is J.T. Poston at +5500 at BetMGM. Poston seems like a fair number in this type of field for a guy who's best results come on the shorter, easier courses. He doesn't have the results here that I'd like, but kind of similar to his John Deere win last season, the game is in solid shape and this course should fit his skill set.
Next up, I'll go to Christiaan Bezuidenhout at +6000, also at PointsBet. Bez is my one play who missed Kapalua last week. But he's a solid fit here and played enough recently during the holiday swing down in South Africa when the PGA goes on hiatus. He put up good results there so I'm not worried about any rust with him. He was 17th in his debut here last year on a course that will put the emphasis on his short game strengths.
I'll close out here with Mackenzie Hughes at +6600 at BetMGM. Hughes is another short-game wizard who finished in the middle of the pack last week. The irons were adequate in that strong field but the driver held him back. This week, that club is far less of an advantage, so I'll hope the short game prowess can mask that deficiency and he can work his way into contention.
This card leaves me with about a half unit to play with live, which I can use to toss on one more guy in the Poston/Hughes range. That or I can take a couple swings at triple digit long shots that drift after first couple of rounds.
The Sony Card
- KH Lee +4000 (.83 units)
- JT Poston +5500 (.5 units)
- Christiaan Bezuidenhout +6000 (.66 units)
- Mackenzie Hughes +6600 (.5 units)
Total Stake: 2.49
