Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Tour Championship odds board and found their 2023 Tour Championship Best Bets and other expert picks for this week's PGA Tour FedExCup Playoffs event at East Lake Golf Club (North) in Atlanta, Georgia.
This is the second event of the 2023 FedExCup Playoffs as the top 30 players from the FedExCup Standings are featured in this week's no-cut event from Atlanta.
Check out our Action Network golf betting expert picks and previews for the 2023 Tour Championship, including picks for Xander Schauffele, Sungjae Im, Patrick Cantlay, Russell Henley & more as we go through our 2023 Tour Championship Best Bets.
2023 Tour Championship Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Xander Schauffele Low Gross (+1400) (FanDuel)
Schauffele's first-round tee time: 12:43 p.m. ET
Since the format of the Tour Championship was changed in 2019, Xander Schauffele has finished 2nd-1st-3rd-6th on the 72-hole leaderboard at East Lake.
That means the format change has potentially cost him millions of dollars. It also means there’s something about having his back against the wall and starting behind other players which really gets Schauffele moving.
This week, he’ll begin at 3-under, seven behind Scottie Scheffler, while fresh off a T8 in Chicago, his best result in three months. There’s no reason to buck the trend now, so let’s stick with history and play Schauffele to once again go low in Atlanta.
Chris Murphy: Sungjae Im — Top Asian +150 (FanDuel)
Im's first-round tee time: 12:32 p.m. ET
I’m going up and down the board on Sungjae Im this week as he is a great course fit for East Lake, and his game is bubbling with form. He has posted top-15 finishes in each of the past three tournaments, including consecutive top-seven finishes in the FedExCup Playoffs.
Sungjae gained more than seven shots from tee to green over the weekend in an elite field at the BMW Championship, and I expect him to carry that form into the Tour Championship.
While I am a big fan of him in longer markets, my favorite wager is him to be the Top Asian finisher with adjusted strokes included. It is just a three-player market with Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim, all starting within a shot of each other (Sungjae Im/Tom Kim at -2, Si Woo Kim at -1).
Im has the best current form with a great course history and fit that should have him closer to an even-money favorite in this market. I’ll happily take what I see as solid value and a good starting point for my card full of exposure on the South Korean.
Spencer Aguiar: Patrick Cantlay -130 Over Max Homa (bet365)
Cantlay's first-round tee time: 1:27 p.m. ET
Sure, Patrick Cantlay has shown a propensity on these greens to struggle, dropping over six shots with his flat stick in three separate occurrences. However, I do have reasons to believe Max Homa is being overpriced in most markets because of his recent form and one-off course history at East Lake.
Homa ranked 27th out of 30 players on Donald Ross courses, 24th in Proximity from Over 200 Yards, 25th for projected Total Driving to mimic East Lake and 29th in Weighted Par-5 Scoring. I worry that the wheels unravel a little for him at a venue where he had to gain 4.5 shots putting last year to overcome a poor iron performance.
Nick Bretwisch: Russell Henley — Top 10 +165 (DraftKings)
Henley's first-round tee time: 1:05 p.m. ET
Russell Henley should fit this course perfectly and enters the event in absolute elite ball-striking form with an above-average putter.
The putter has always been the scare for Henley, but he grades inside the top 15 for me in Expected Strokes Gained: Putting on these lightning Bermuda greens.
Let’s put it all together here, Russ!
2023 Tour Championship Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Scottie Scheffler
- Chris Murphy: Rory McIlroy
- Spencer Aguiar: Rory McIlroy
- Nick Bretwisch: Scottie Scheffler
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Sungjae Im
- Murphy: Sungjae Im
- Aguiar: Russell Henley
- Bretwisch: Russell Henley
Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Lucas Glover
- Murphy: Patrick Cantlay
- Aguiar: Max Homa
- Bretwisch: Jon Rahm
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Max Homa
- Murphy: Russell Henley
- Aguiar: Lucas Glover
- Bretwisch: Collin Morikawa
Trend That Guides Your 2023 Tour Championship Betting Strategy
Sobel: In the first three years of the staggered-start format, the player who began the week at 10-under with a two-stroke lead wound up winning the FedExCup. Last year, it took a final-round meltdown from Scottie Scheffler combined with a strong performance from Rory McIlroy to stop that trend, but I think it reverts back this week.
In his last 13 starts since his most recent win, Scheffler owns an eye-popping nine top-five finishes. Staked with a lead once again, it’s difficult to envision him backing up, especially after it happened last year.
Expect him to pace himself better this time and clinch the title, likely earning Player of the Year honors in the process.
Aguiar: The biggest issue with this staggered start is that East Lake isn't the most accessible venue in the world to play catch up if you are trying to come from off the pace.
The scoring dispersion gets these isolated opportunities on the two par-5s, where every winner has ranged between producing 53% to 72% of their 72-hole score from those eight chances. That's fine because it gives us a blueprint to follow.
However, the issue comes down to the fact that we won’t get the real opportunities to make up ground if the par-3s feature tucked pins and the par-4s continue to limit birdie opportunities.
