Everything was set up for a potentially great weekend at East Lake with three of the biggest names all within two shots of each other going into the weekend. Unfortunately, Viktor Hovland had other plans as he torched the competition with a 4-under round on Saturday to take a commanding six-shot lead into Sunday. Hovland has had an incredible run over the past two weeks and has put it together at just the right time. He's been able to take full advantage of his edge to start this week and is set to cruise to the title.
Collin Morikawa was unable to maintain his torrid pace and dropped to seven shots back of the lead going into Sunday. In my opinion, this is where the format of rewarding players with stroke advantages really takes away from the tournament. The two best players in the field were separated by seven shots to start the week, and will begin the final round with that same margin. This doesn't seem like the way that we should close out the season, but it's where we are for now at the Tour Championship.
Let's see if we can find some value in other Sunday betting markets.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained gives bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field. Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility. You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but aren’t getting putts to drop.
Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
2023 Tour Championship Round 4 Best Bets: 3 Golfers to Buy
Hovland has had a great week. He got out of the gates a little slow with a 2-under on Thursday, but he's been on the gas ever since. He put together one of the best rounds of the day Saturday as his 4-under effectively put the tournament away. I'm really happy for him and he deserves all of the credit for his play, but it would have been fun to have he and Morikawa tied going into the final round. Instead, we are left with a bit of a dead Sunday.
The best player for my money on Sunday will continue to be Xander Schauffele. I'll double down in every market and matchup, including against Hovland, who will have no reason to take any chances. Schauffele had the third-best day tee-to-green on Saturday and ranks third in the field in that metric this week. He loves East Lake and I expect he'll be ready to close out another good Tour Championship on Sunday.
It hasn't been the week Lucas Glover was hoping for and that really started on Thursday, when he opened with the second-worst round in the field. He's bounced back since and continued that trend with a solid 1-under round on Saturday where he was seventh in the field in SG: Tee-to-Green. I'll be looking for him to close out strong and make one final statement for Ryder Cup captain Zach Johnson. Glover could present value in matchups, DFS and the top-10 market.
