Of course, different courses emphasize ball striking differently. That being said, here's a look at the top golfers who missed the weekend by hitting it well, but still scoring below their projected marks.
These are names you might want to keep in mind as we move forward in the schedule because that entire list would have landed inside the projected cut range had they provided their baseline short-game outputs.
It is always a tough pill to swallow when the more volatile statistics end up undoing of someone's chances. But, let's continue looking at the data and see if we can find some Saturday value.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter: @TeeOffSports. There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Top-Five Underachievers Inside My Model
I always like looking at this list on Friday night because it factors how someone is striking the ball, compares it to their baseline short game totals and figures out the most significant underachievers through two rounds.
This statistic plays nicely throughout various avenues of the market, including DFS, finding an outright winner and head-to-head wagers. So, let's pinpoint two ways we can consider getting exposure on these golfers.
Hideki Matsuyama
Hideki Matsuyama was one of the final cuts to my pre-event card. We're not in the best spot when considering Matsuyama as the outright winner of this event as he's down eight shots, which is factored into his 100/1 price. However, he has the seventh-best expected scoring output in the field through two rounds.
These are always enticing options as the ceiling may be higher than what most sportsbooks are weighing in their projections.
The 31-year-old was one of only 15 players in this field to gain both off-the-tee and on approach on both Thursday and Friday. This should be considered a dart-throw opportunity if you are looking for a shot-in-the-dark score.
A DFS answer at $8,300 is the more plausible Round 3 route if you want to play this in a safer capacity, but I don't mind hoping that the leaders come back to the pack Saturday, which would naturally make Matsuyama worth a small wager at his enhanced odds.
Cameron Davis -110 over Tom Hoge (DraftKings)
It is a tale of two tapes for how Cameron Davis and Tom Hoge have constructed their five-under marks this week.
Davis, who my model ranked as the 45th-best head-to-head commodity before the tournament, has been skyrocketing in the corollary metrics I use to find one-on-one success. His 4.65-shot ball-striking return places him ninth among golfers who teed it up this week.
On the other hand, Hoge is the ultimate red flag. He made the cut and surpassed his pre-tournament grade on the leaderboard, but failed to do the same in my head-to-head ranking system. My model shifted him from 65th to 77th because of his 106th-place mark in "Baseline Putting + ATG Score."
I will take the 5.38-stroke disparity in expected scoring over the opening two rounds and grab a number that looks off by over 20 points.
