We'll need a mini miracle to go back-to-back in the U.S. Open and Travelers Championship after hitting Wyndham Clark at 100/1 last week. Still, we'll at least get a swing within striking distance on Patrick Cantlay.
The American catapulted himself back into contention by firing a nine-under 61 on Saturday, closing the gap to within five shots of Keegan Bradley. My model believes Bradley will get the job done Sunday, but a fast start from Cantlay could alter the proceedings and lead to a nail-biting finish.
That being said, let's get out of a betting mindset and discuss some DFS plays for the final round of the Travelers Championship.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
2023 Travelers Championship Round 4 Buys
Hideki Matsuyama
I wrote Friday night that Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Tony Finau, Hideki Matsuyama and Cameron Davis were the five most significant underachievers, according to my model. That was shown to be primarily truthful after Matsuyama, Thomas and Scheffler delivered top-10 rounds Saturday.
Unfortunately, not everything landed on the right side of the aisle for our head-to-head wager of Davis over Tom Hoge. Still, the same sentiment remains, which means there's potential for Matsuyama to continue to climb the leaderboard.
My math has Matsuyama as the second-projected golfer in this field when recalculating "Baseline Putting + ATG Score." It also looks like Matsuyama may go marginally under the radar Sunday as Bradley, Adam Scott and Denny McCarthy are all surrounding him on the slate.
Viktor Hovland
We talked a little about how Matsuyama has been a consistent underachiever over his opening three rounds at the Travelers Championship. Well, my model found similar tendencies when looking into Viktor Hovland.
Hovland grades as one of only six golfers in this field who hasn't lost over 0.15 shots with his driver or irons on any given day at the event. However, the key to that answer can be branched out even further as he's also the only golfer from that list to be ranked outside the top 20 of the leaderboard.
I am a big believer that DFS players go way too heavy on starting positions in round four, to the point where it becomes the most significant edge of the week for those playing day-long contests. Remember, that impact stretches even further on a course like TPC River Highlands that is generating birdies in bunches.
Tom Kim
It has been a disappointing week for Tom Kim.
The fact that Kim is starting as far back in the pack as he is suggests he might get the best of these greens throughout the round and be able to freely fire at the pins all day.
Sure, the floor is a disastrous close to the week that mimics much of what he's put on paper so far, but the ceiling is a painting on the walls of the Sistine Chapel. I'm always willing to gamble on that potential when it will come at virtually no ownership. Don't be shocked if Kim renders a top-10 round.
