Saturday at the Travelers Championship provided plenty of scoring opportunities as rain softened the course and eliminated winds. That led to three players with scores of 62 or better. Rickie Fowler led that charge with a 60 and is tied for fourth. Justin Thomas and Patrick Cantlay provided the other two rounds of 8-under or better, but all three trail Keegan Bradley.
Bradley's 6-under 64 on Saturday left him with a one-shot lead over the surprise of the week, 41-year-old Chez Reavie. Bradley and Reavie will play in the final pairing Sunday and are separated from the rest of the field by four shots. It seems to be a two-player race, but if conditions remain the same, there will be opportunities for players to post low numbers and hope the leaders stumble down the stretch.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field. Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility. You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop.
Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
2023 Travelers Round 4 Best Bets: 3 Golfers to Buy
I agree with the numbers that have Keegan Bradley as a -120 favorite. On the other hand, Reavie's absurd putting numbers through three rounds certainly stand out to me.
Chez Reavie has gained 1.87, 3.32 and 3.84 strokes on the greens in his first three rounds this week. That's just over nine strokes gained for a player who ranks 110th in SG: Putting this season. Maybe he can close it out with another great putting performance, but I tend to fade that type of trend for a player who historically isn't a good putter. To put in perspective just how much that putter carried him Saturday, Reavie gained just .88 strokes tee-to-green in his 7-under round. While he has a recent win, this isn't the Barracuda Championship he won in 2022. This is an elevated event that is going to have a different feel on Sunday and I think we'll see Reavie's putter come back to earth under that pressure. I'm certainly not running to bet Bradley, but he's my pick to win.
The top-five market is the most interesting betting market for me as we look to the final round. There are eight players within two shots of Cantlay (3rd), meaning a number of players are within reach of a top-five finish. Perhaps the most important part of this market will be betting it in the right place and, for me, that is BetMGM, where all ties are paid in full. It is very likely there will be multiple players tied in the final top five and the fact your bet won't be cut down is a big advantage at BetMGM.
I'll be digging in on Justin Thomas at +250 going into Sunday. I typically don't like to take players who have just gone extremely low. As the old adage says, it's difficult to follow a low round with another. However, I tend to look at Thomas in an opposite light because he is so streaky and we are getting the good side of that streak as he leads the field in SG: Tee-to-Green this week.
Since we are getting all ties paid in full, I'm going to double down on this market. My play here will be a little longer as Corey Conners sits three shots back of Cantlay. He's looked more like the Conners we expect this week, gaining strokes on the field in a big way tee-to-green. He ranks fourth in the field in that metric and is third in ball striking. The putter is always the question with the Canadian, but at +600 I'll hope his positive trends carry into his Sunday as he looks for his first top five since his win at the Valero.
