2023 U.S. Open Odds, Best Bets: Expert Picks and Predictions

The 2023 US Open is officially upon us — and that means it's time to take a look at the 2023 U.S. Open Odds and our Best Bets and Expert Picks and Predictions.

Our expert staff analyzed the 2023 U.S. Open odds board and found their favorite picks for the third major championship of the year.

LACC hosts its first ever major championship this week as the U.S. Open returns to Los Angeles for the first time in 75 years.

Our golf betting experts are hot as Jason Sobel has connected on outright winners in each of the last three weeks, and Matt Vincenzi has hit the outright winner in four of the last five majors! Check out which players our golf betting analysts are backing to win outright along which players they are fading in our 2023 U.S. Open Odds, Best Bets: Expert Picks and Predictions.

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2023 U.S. Open Odds, Best Bets: Expert Picks and Predictions

2023 U.S. Open Best Bets

Sobel: Cameron Smith +3000 (FanDuel)

If you haven’t seen much of Cameron Smith recently and needed a reminder of how he plays when he’s at his best, that reminder came at the PGA Championship, where he finished “just” T9 but was second in the field in Strokes Gained: Putting at +1.90 per round. Those watching the reigning Open Championship winner intently that week can be forgiven for believing that number might’ve been even better, as it never seemed like Smith found anything but the center of the cup from inside 15 feet.

His lack of driving accuracy undoubtedly kept him from a more serious title contention at that one, but it shouldn’t hurt him as much this week. Smith hasn’t finished better than T38 at a U.S. Open since 2015, when he was T4, but it can be argued that we haven’t seen a setup at this event like the one we’ll see this week since then, either.

The analytics have shown us that ball-striking numbers are largely sustainable (to some degree), while putting numbers are more volatile. I don’t disagree with this stat-based assessment, but too often it forces us to look past the game’s best rock-rollers.

Smith is in the conversation for best putter in the world right now, and there might not be a conversation for best in the clutch. If the magic wand is working to its usual capabilities this week, his 30/1 number sounds like a bargain.

Pick: Cameron Smith +3000

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2023 U.S. Open Picks: Bet Smith, Spieth & ReedRead now

Murphy: Scottie Scheffler +700 (FanDuel)

I am officially putting all my chips on the table with Scottie Scheffler at 7/1. This isn’t something I normally do as I generally shop for the longshots and hope they can beat the top of the board, but this week I just have it in my mind that this will be Scottie’s major for 2023.

Scheffler has been on an absurd run of golf over the last eight months where he has no finish outside of the top 12 dating back to October. He’s been the best player in all fields from tee to green over, and it has just been the flatstick holding him back from winning more tournaments since his Players Championship title in March.

I don’t expect the putts to continue to stay out forever, and this is a week on a course where he has a little more familiarity than much of the field, where I think he can find himself back in the winner’s circle.

I am all in on Scheffler, and I’ll do everything I can to get the edge on the numbers, using the +300 boost on DraftKings for some, and spreading around for others. I will also be looking to add live if the opportunity presents itself.

Pick: Scottie Scheffler +700

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Vincenzi: Scottie Scheffler +700 (FanDuel)

I typically don’t bet the favorite, but if there’s a place to do it, it’s the U.S. Open.

Scottie Scheffler is playing some of the best golf we’ve ever seen this season, with only his putter holding him back. In his past five starts, Scheffler has gained an average of 14.1 strokes on the field from tee to green.

In his most recent start at the Memorial Tournament, he gained a whopping 20.7 strokes from tee to green. Remarkably, he finished only one shot out of a playoff while losing 8.5 strokes putting.

Throughout the past decade or so, we’ve seen players win the U.S. Open after having strong finishes in one or both of the major championships leading into their U.S. Open start. Scheffler finished second at the PGA Championship behind Brooks Koepka, which I believe puts him in a great spot to win this week.

Scottie also finished second at last year’s U.S. Open, demonstrating his ability to play well in a difficult USGA setup.

In his past 24 rounds, Scheffler ranks first in Strokes Gained: Approach, second in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee, first in Strokes Gained: Around the Green and first in Proximity from 175+ yards.

The poor putting is a concern, but I believe he will figure it out this week. If he putts close to field average, it seems unlikely that anyone can compete with the 26-year-old from tee to green.

Sometimes the simplest answer is the best answer. Scheffler is playing historically great golf at the moment and is a favorite worth backing.

Pick: Scottie Scheffler +700

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2023 U.S. Open Picks: Bryson DeChambeau, & Scottie Scheffler Read now

Aguiar: Mito Pereira 52nd or Better -120 (bet365)

This is a spot where Mito Pereira has fallen victim to a LIV Golf bias that has pushed names like Cameron Smith, Joaquin Niemann and himself lower on the odds board than they would have been if they stayed on the PGA Tour.

Pereira has been steady throughout his run in LIV events, and we have seen a very similar output with him during both the Masters and PGA Championship, two events where he finished 43rd and 18th.

My model ranked him in the top 20 for projected weighted scoring, and the projections of all seven categories I ran placed him as one of only 16 players to land within the top 50 for every metric.

U.S. Open First Look: Scottie Scheffler, Jordan Spieth, Tyrrell HattonRead now

Bretwisch: Mito Pereira Top 40 +125 (FanDuel)

I echo everything Spencer said above. My numbers love the safety/upside combination that Pereira brings to the table, especially on firm/fast Bentgrass surfaces. The Chilean’s elite ball-striking and positioning off the tee should keep him in the hunt all weekend long.

2023 U.S. Open Expert Picks and Predictions

Favorites We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Jordan Spieth
• Chris Murphy: Scottie Scheffler
• Matt Vincenzi: Scottie Scheffler
• Spencer Aguiar: Viktor Hovland
• Nick Bretwisch: Patrick Cantlay

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Patrick Reed
• Murphy: Wyndham Clark
• Vincenzi: Bryson DeChambeau
• Aguiar: Wyndham Clark
• Bretwisch: Mito Pereira

U.S. Open First-Round Leader Bets: Smith, DeChambeau & MatsuyamaRead now

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Max Homa
• Murphy: Collin Morikawa
• Vincenzi: Viktor Hovland
• Aguiar: Dustin Johnson
• Bretwisch: Collin Morikawa

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Ryan Fox
• Murphy: Patrick Reed
• Vincenzi: Hideki Matsuyama
• Aguiar: Cameron Smith
• Bretwisch: Cameron Young

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: Over the past decade, we’ve witnessed a stark contrast from the previous generation as far as the type of player who finds U.S. Open success. Once the domain of the likes of Lee Janzen, Corey Pavin and Jim Furyk, recent winners have included Brooks Koepka, Dustin Johnson, Bryson DeChambeau, Gary Woodland and Jon Rahm.

Even last year’s champion, Matt Fitzpatrick, might’ve lacked the brawn of those others, but he certainly didn’t lack much distance or swing speed. The rationale, essentially, has been that even the precise players are going to miss fairways, so those with power have a massive edge when they’re all playing from the thick stuff.

There are signs that trend of big-hitting Darwinism won’t continue this week. The North course will play as a 7,421-yard par-70 on the scorecard, but the USGA’s propensity for moving tee boxes each day means it could play a few hundred yards shorter for any given round.

With rough that, upon first glance, doesn’t appear as gnarly as some previous venues, there’s a sense this one could be more of a thinking man’s U.S. Open, perhaps not necessarily the type where plotters and plodders thrive, but at least one where creativity doesn’t take a backseat to brute strength.

As such, I’m seeking ball-strikers over bashers and short-game specialists over everyone else.

Aguiar: This is another course without long-term data to judge this week. It is funny because this lack of information isn't as jarring since U.S. Open venues always play somewhat similarly between seasons that it’s possible to extrapolate numbers out from any of those fast, firm or challenging courses to land on a general expectation.

That is at least something to keep in mind when running a model, but there are still so many unique characteristics at LACC that will be pronounced throughout.

Visually, LACC looks wide-open off the tee. Some holes will possess 70 or 80 yards of width on these fairways, which typically points many in the direction of a bomb-and-gouge mentality.

However, I think that is the wrong way to view this facility since it almost becomes a second-shot course that will be speedy near the greens and require iron control and short-game creativity to find opportunities.