Sports betting is all about finding value and edges in sustainable markets. The goal should always be to locate long-term answers that can methodically build a bankroll year over year. It doesn't mean every bet is going to win (nor does it guarantee that the particular wager inside this article is going to get into the winner's circle). However, I say all of that to continue my weekly sermon that cards need to be built less outright-heavy and more structured with placement and head-to-head bets.
Outrights are great when they hit, but I do think the industry has become overly infatuated with that boom-or-bust answer when constructing a card. There are just too many hot and cold runs that will drain a bankroll if you don't have other avenues to build from when you do land on the wrong side of expected value.
We see that with my season so far in 2023. It has been a brutal six months of outrights that have gone cold throughout every tournament. But one thing you will notice in the image below is that despite a horrible season in that sector, my cards are typically built so that I don't find myself massively exposed.
The red on that chart would continue if we scrolled down further, but despite recording what has been my worst statistical season since entering this space in 2017, we still find ourselves up nearly eight units. That is because of the salvaging that can be done in other areas, which includes a long-term run in the in-tournament market that has posted a record of 230-148-43.
That mark is good for a 60.85% ROI and more than a 55 unit return.
Reviewing these boards weekly and recommending plays for everyone to consider is something I pride myself on. Still, my most significant takeaway is generating a way for users to find answers of their own. That is one of the things you can do in my model every week.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
U.S. Open Round 1 Matchup Pick
Denny McCarthy -120 Over Adam Hadwin (BetRivers)
I would love to gain extra exposure to a handful of players in various markets. Russell Henley, Wyndham Clark, Denny McCarthy and Mito Pereira are a few who are underpriced and pop into my mind when trying to find value.
In an ideal world, we would have gotten a much better head-to-head market that allowed us to take those options against who my model deemed inferior opponents from a week-long sense. Still, we have our first minor opening in the first round to try and back Denny McCarthy over Adam Hadwin.
My model noticed this interesting trend for McCarthy that started to propel him statistically on these fast and firm courses. The American placed as the top-ranked putter for me over both a recent and long-term sample size. He landed as the only player on the outright board to be over 100-1 who graded as a top-20 caliber option when given this textured surface looking at overall strokes gained total.
That upside was an extremely enticing takeaway since Hadwin did experience some positive trajectory on a challenging track. However, the numbers started dissipating when recalculating the totals for Los Angeles Country Club. The Canadian graded 89th this week on a fast-conditioned venue, 69th for weighted scoring and 75th for total driving, making him what appears to be a low-ceiling golfer over four days of golf.
It doesn't mean Hadwin can't get hot for a day and capitalize against us on a wager where I only have about 15 points of value. That is typically below my threshold for recommending a bet here at Action, but these boards have continued to shrink in value over the last month if I am trying to avoid the star-versus-star battle.
Let's take a shot that McCarthy's underrated characteristics will present a higher ceiling than what is believed by the general public, and if worse comes to worst, Los Angeles is known for being the city of stars. Stars need extra security, so if this bet looks in danger heading into the back nine, I might put in a call to have security leave the Playboy Mansion and tackle Hadwin on the 16th green.
