The story going into Friday at the U.S. Open revolved mostly around what seemed to be low scores from the opening round and a course that wasn't living up to the difficult nature that this tournament is known for.
That narrative still exists, but with Rickie Fowler leading the way through two rounds and a leaderboard littered with the top players in the game, the focus has turned to what should be a great weekend at Los Angeles Country Club.
Fowler backed up his opening-round 62 by posting another couple of strokes under par on Friday. He'll carry a one-shot lead into Saturday over Wyndham Clark, who continues to play well since his win at the Wells Fargo.
Rory McIlroy and Xander Schauffele lurk just two shots back of the lead and names like Dustin Johnson, Scottie Scheffler and Cameron Smith are sitting inside the top 10.
As much as I love Rickie — and even Rory or Xander — none of them are really known for closing out wins lately. It really opens the door for some of the others to have a shot over the weekend.
With the possibility that some low scores could still be out there, it makes for a fun betting board heading into Round 3.
Let's see who stands out with some value going into Moving Day.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the Tour calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation.
If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field. Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility. You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop.
Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
2023 U.S. Open Round 3 Best Bets: 3 Golfers to Buy
We've seen some flashes of good play from Dustin Johnson in the major championships this year; he's gotten off to fast starts, but really hit the skids hard as the tournaments went forward.
It seemed to be happening again on Friday as he posted the dreaded snowman, a quadruple-bogey 8 on the par 4 2nd hole to start Round 2. DJ lost more than three-and-a-half shots to the field tee-to-green during that one hole, and for many, that would've been the moment to pack it up.
It says a lot about him and his game that he was able to reign things in from there, immediately birdieing the next hole and climbing all the way back to even par by the end of the round.
I really like the resolve that Dustin showed over the final 16 holes on Friday, and he was able to go bogey free over the final 14 to keep himself in the mix. The four birdies he made over that stretch erased his disaster at the second, and now he heads into the weekend just four shots back of the lead.
He's listed at +1400 on BetRivers, and that's a nice number compared to the rest of the board. We know DJ has the game and skillset to win this type of event, and if the bounce back is a sign of things to come for the rest of the way, he'll be right there until the end on Sunday.
Speaking of major champions from LIV, Cameron Smith is the next name that catches my eye. He's six shots back of Fowler, but at +3000, we're just looking for him to cut that deficit down a few shots before the final round.
Smith has the all-around game that I think will be necessary to maintain a top position as this course continues to get firm and fast over the weekend.
The Australian is one of the best short-game players in golf, and this week, he's been thriving with his ball striking. He's gaining more than two shots on the field per round in those metrics thus far, with nearly three strokes gained on approach.
Cam is another player that if he puts it all together over the next two days, he can post a really low score and get himself right there for a shot to capture his second major.
I really like the form he's showing this week, and at +3000, we get some nice value for him to make his move on Saturday.
I tweeted last night that I had some concerns with Rickie having to carry the burden of being the leader heading into the weekend, and that sentiment holds true for many of those near the top that are looking for that first major win.
I would feel the same about a guy like Tony Finau, but I love the position he's in from seven shots back of the lead going into the weekend.
Tony's strokes gained numbers this week are those of a player really doing a lot of things well, but he's oddly struggled a bit off the tee. He ranks 32nd on the PGA Tour this year in SG: Off the Tee and is 18th in Total Driving. He's also inside the top 70 in both distance and accuracy.
It's really strange to see him struggling to find the driver swing this week, as he's losing strokes to the field in that metric in both of the first two rounds.
I don't expect that to continue over the weekend, and if he can find that part of his game, we may see him find a low score and really move into the mix.
Finau is listed at +7000 on PointsBet, and he's a player that I see as still being in the mix for this championship, especially if he can pair his typical driver game with his irons that have gained more than two shots per round over the first two days.
