The Valero Texas Open is the final chance for players to qualify for next week's Masters. With just one of the top-20 players in the Official World Golf Rankings in the field this week (no. 17 Tyrrell Hatton), there’s plenty of opportunity for a long shot to cash outright and punch a ticket to Augusta National.
The last time we ventured into sleeper territory in this article, we hit on Taylor Moore (+7000) to win the Valspar Championship two weeks ago. Let's see if we can stay hot and hit on another sleeper outright or the first-round leader this week.
Valero Texas Open Sleeper Picks
Nicolai Hojgaard +5000 (FanDuel)
Nicolai Hojgaard has been playing great golf lately. Since December, he has played in six DP World Tour events and finished in the top 13 four times. He also made his first PGA TOUR start of the season last week at the Corales Puntacana Championship and finished in second place.
Unfortunately, Shotlink data has only been available for three of his seven starts since December, so there are some statistical unknowns. However, Hojgaard has tremendous upside as a 22-year-old who has shown he has what it takes to close out tournaments on big stages, with wins on the DP World Tour in 2021 and in 2022.
He also has tremendous length off the tee, which is always an advantage, though he'll need to avoid costly misses with the driver at TPC San Antonio. There isn’t much penal rough on the course, but as Kevin Na proved when he made a 16 here in 2011, if players miss in the rocks and dense clumps of trees, it is a severe penalty.
Hojgaard has also shown a tendency to run hot and cold, so I like the chances of him continuing his impressive form. With few players presenting high upside this weekj, I have bet him at +5000 to win outright. Additionally, with him not finishing outside the top 38 in his past seven DP World Tour and PGA Tour starts, I like the value on him to finish 48 or better at -120 on bet365.
Pick: Nicolai Hojgaard Outright +5000 |
Akshay Bhatia +8500 for First-Round Leader | +10000 Outright (FanDuel)
Akshay Bhatia is another somewhat unknown young golfer with upside who could win this week. Bhatia has made five of six cuts on the PGA Tour this year and has two top-seven finishes in his four Korn Ferry Tour starts this year.
Last week, he fired a second-round 63 at the Corales Puntacana Championship and finished in a tie for 24th. His best finish on TOUR this year came at a windy course in the Puerto Rico Open, where he finished second. That experience could be useful this week with windy conditions expected at TPC San Antonio.
The 21-year-old has shown he can go low with a round of 65 or better in four of his past five PGA Tour starts, but he needs to prove he can put it all together for four rounds. For this reason, I like the value better on him for first-round leader bets at +8500 at FanDuel, but I have also sprinkled him to win outright at +10000.
Pick: Akshay Bhatia First-Round Leader +8500 |
Ben Martin +9000 (DraftKings)
Ben Martin is a steady golfer who could break through this week in San Antonio. He is coming in with tremendous form as he has top-13 finishes in three of his past five starts on Tour and hasn’t missed a cut in that span. He has gained strokes on approach in seven of his past eight tracked tournaments, which doesn’t include his T8 last week in Puntacana, where he likely gained strokes on approach. Overall, he ranks 20th this season on Tour in Strokes Gained: Approach.
He also has shown the ability to spike with the putter and is already a PGA Tour winner with a win back in the 2014-2015 season at the Shriners Hospitals for Children Open. He is also a relatively accurate driver, and his Distance from Edge of the Fairway is among the top half of players on Tour, which will be relevant this week with severe penalties like rocks and clumps of trees beyond the relatively forgiving rough.
