It was an exciting opening day at the Valspar Championship. Justin Thomas, Sam Burns and Jordan Spieth are all within the top 15 and my pre-tournament darling, Stephan Jaeger, takes a share of the lead into what could prove to be a slightly more volatile weather output with projected winds in the forecast.
From a betting perspective, Thursday went as well as it has for me in the past month. Jaeger captured a piece of the first-round leader market at his 65/1 price and my in-tournament matchup saw both players implode, but in a fashion that got our man across the finish line. That is one of the reasons I always try to preach to find fade candidates over golfers you want to play. It gives us multiple avenues to cash our tickets.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
The Valspar Championship
Justin Rose +100 over Matthew Fitzpatrick (DraftKings)
Unfortunately, books have continued to be stingy in the opportunities they are presenting us. The 2023 iteration of betting boards isn't quite what we have seen in years past, and it has caused me to try and aggressively attack edges I usually would have left for another time.
I always make the argument that one round of golf shouldn't have a drastic impact on your extended pre-tournament numbers. DFS gamers and bettors sometimes have a terrible habit of ignoring everything that went into their research after one outlier performance.
However, we do have a valuable spot here with Justin Rose versus Matthew Fitzpatrick. Not only did my math prefer Rose at about a -120 clip entering the week, but we received an additional eight points of value after Fitzpatrick's tumultuous Thursday.
The 28-year-old lost a shocking 3.21 shots to the field ball-striking through a forgettable three-over performance — a total that placed him 136th out of 144 golfers. Once again, it shouldn't be viewed as a massive market mover that completely alters the what the early data anticipated. However, I will grab the 28-point advantage that should present us a little over a 6% implied win probability edge for Friday.
Consider this more of a number grab than anything since we are still dealing with the dreaded star versus star battle I typically prefer to ignore. That being said, it seems likely the books have flipped the accurate price of these two for round two.
*I expect this to move quickly. I always try to state what I have as accurate so you can make your own decisions. The edge will start shrinking some as this shifts. As I stated above, -128 was my proper price.
