We are back with another designated event this week with the Wells Fargo Championship. Quail Hollow Club is one of the favorite stops for golfers on the PGA Tour, and with an increased purse, this will certainly be an event that many have had circled on their calendars. Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler are the only two big names not in the field this week, and honestly, it was nice of them to let someone else win for a change. Rahm and Scheffler have combined to win five of the eight designated events so far this season.
There will be 156 golfers in the field this week at Quail Hollow, which is a par 71 that measures over 7,500 yards. This is one of the longest courses on the PGA Tour and has certainly favored the bombers over the years. The fairways are fairly generous (33.4 yards wide on average), which means you'll see a lot of drivers off the tee this week. The thick rough doesn't necessarily help the short hitters, as these fairways are tough to hit for everyone. If anything, golfers will want to be closer to the hole when they do miss the fairway. I'm personally bumping up driving distance in my model for the week.
Long iron play will also be important this week. More than 70% of approach shots hit at this course come from more than 150 yards. This isn't like many of the stops on the PGA Tour where golfers will be hitting wedge on every hole. Due to the lengthy approach shots, these greens are difficult to hit on average. This brings scrambling into play as a key metric to consider. The greens themselves are average in size and feature bermudagrass.
In terms of difficulty, this has played as one of the 10 toughest courses on the PGA Tour each of the last five years it has been on the schedule. For those who like to look at course history, make sure not to include data from 2017 and 2022. This event was held at different courses those years due to Quail Hollow hosting the 2017 PGA Championship and the 2022 Presidents Cup.
Wells Fargo Championship Outright Betting Picks
Cameron Young +2100 (FanDuel)
Even though I am still betting him to win, Cameron Young is a good example of why we need to be careful with the course history of this event. He finished second at the Wells Fargo Championship last year, but it was held at a different course.
Still, Quail Hollow should set up beautifully for him. He's one of the longest hitters on Tour and one of the best long iron players in the field. He's already racked up six runner-up finishes in his short career on the PGA Tour, so it's only a matter of time before he breaks through with his first win.
Pick: Cameron Young Outright +2000 |
Jason Day +2900 (FanDuel)
Eventually, I am going to recoup all of the money that I have lost betting Jason Day to win. All it takes is one event, and I am hoping it's this one. The last time we saw Day was at the Masters where he went from second place to outside of the top 30 over the weekend. Prior to that, he had finished T25 or better in 12 of 13 starts.
He has plenty of distance and one of the best short games on the PGA Tour. If the irons cooperate, he should find himself in the mix on Sunday. He has plenty of experience at this course and even won here in 2018.
Pick: Jason Day Outright +2900 |
Wyndham Clark +7500 (FanDuel)
I always like to back up my long-shot bets with a top 10 bet, and that's exactly what I will be doing with Wyndham Clark this week. He has always been known for his ability to hit the ball far and for his ability to roll the rock.
This season, he has figured out his irons. "Uh oh, Wyndy learned how to hit irons." That didn't sound as good as "Happy learned how to putt," but we'll roll with it. He has gained at least two strokes on approach in seven of his last eight starts. He fits the course well and is worth a flier at +7500.
Pick: Wyndham Clark Outright +7500 |
Patrick Rodgers +12000 (FanDuel)
Patrick Rodgers is still looking for his first win on the PGA Tour, but he was a prolific winner in college and nearly won at Quail Hollow in 2015 (finished runner-up). Similar to Clark, his biggest strengths have always been distance off the tee and putting.
This season, he has made strides with his iron play and his short game. He's rattled off three straight top 20s over the last month and has gained over 10 strokes on approach over that span. He's certainly a long-shot, but he has the talent to win a big event. I'm backing up this outright with a top-10 bet as well.
Pick: Patrick Rodgers Outright +12000 |
I very much appreciate you reading. Let's have a week.
