While the Mexico Open field lacked punch beyond the top two players, those stars — Tony Finau and Jon Rahm — both brought their best across the border.
Finau was simply the better player as he ran away with a four-shot win to capture his first victory of the season. Many will continue to beat the drum against Finau's latest wins because they've all come against weaker competition, but there was a time not long ago when we wondered if he'd ever win a tournament again. With three wins over the past nine months, it seems to be a matter of time before he steps up and wins a bigger trophy.
This week, we head back to the states for another elevated event in the Wells Fargo Championship from its usual spot at Quail Hollow Club in Charlotte, N.C.. Many of the top players have a strong history around this track, which was the site of Justin Thomas' first major victory, and most recently played host to the Presidents Cup in the fall.
It will be a top-notch field, but thankfully for bettors, we get a break from Rahm and Scheffler, who has been crushing those of us who like to play in markets further down the board.
We'll still have Rory McIlroy and his stellar history at Quail Hollow will be hard to ignore, likely putting him at the top of the odds board. I expect there to be some other familiar names as the first listed when odds open on Monday, but what has my attention is how the next several players fall into place at the back end of the top tier.
First Look
Max Homa
The very first name I'm shopping for is Max Homa. He captured his first win at the Wells Fargo Championship at Quail Hollow in 2019; he seems to have a thing for this tournament as he added another title to his list last year at TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm.
While that's a nice win for him, it doesn't actually do anything for us this year. I am hopeful the missed cut at this tournament in 2021 gives us favorable odds.
Though much of the attention has been on the top two players for much of this season, Homa is on the short list of guys who have shown up in a big way this year. Since winning at the end of January at the Farmers, he has posted three top-15 finishes, including two in the top six.
Yes, he continues to fall short of a big result at majors, but that's an argument for another day. Homa ranks eighth in this field in strokes gained over the past three months, including inside the top 15 ball striking, on approach and putting.
Homa is playing at an elite level that could land him in the winner's circle.
Sungjae Im
One name quietly appearing near the top of leaderboards each week is Sungjae Im.
He has four top-10 finishes over the past three months and a T16 a few weeks back at the Masters. He's third in Strokes Gained Total over the past 12 weeks (above Homa) — only his putting game is outside the top 25 in this field in any strokes gained metric. Im is a complete player tee to green and he will welcome the bermudagrass putting surfaces he will see this week.
Bermuda has always been his best putting surface, and if he can hole a few more putts, he can certainly contend. The Shriners in 2021 was Im's last victory — he's close and I believe we will see him breakthrough again.
Jason Day
I have been hesitant to go in on Jason Day over the past few months. We've seen him show flashes of form before, only to have it fade later in the year.
While I am concerned about his ability to stay near the top of the game, if he were to win, this course and tournament would be on my short list for him. His play on and around the greens have returned to an elite level over the past few months; he ranks top three on tour both putting and with his short game during that timeframe.
We've always known that to be in there with the Australian, but it is coming back at a great time as his back has been cooperating with a new swing that also puts him in the top 30 in ball striking. Quail Hollow is a course that requires players to be on top of their game in all aspects, which is why we see many of the big names with great history at this course.
Day is playing like one of those complete players. If we can get decent odds on him, he will be on my card.
Bonus Name
Rickie Fowler isn't a name I chase as often as many do when they see some flashes of form, but if we get him down beyond the +5000 range, I will have interest.
I'm not sure he can actually close out a win, especially in an elite field like this, but I could take much of what I said about Homa and Day above and apply it to Fowler. While I think the better play will be in placement markets or an outright with each way odds, Fowler deserved an honorable mention.
