The PGA Tour is back with another elevated event in the Wells Fargo Championship.
This one doesn't quite have the same feel as the previous few with both Jon Rahm and Scottie Scheffler choosing to sit out.
The Course
We're back at Quail Hollow after the event was held at TPC Potomac in 2022. Quail Hollow has been home to the Wells Fargo Championship quite often (2003-2016; 2018-2021), with 2017 being a rare exception. It measures at just under 7,600 yards for a par 71 and tends to be one of the courses where shorter hitters have a difficult time competing.
The course is known for it’s closing three-hole stretch called the Green Mile. It plays nearly a shot over par on average, and each of the holes are usually among the top-50 most difficult on tour each season.
This is one of those events where there's almost no point in looking at players who aren't coming in with their driver dialed in.
The Favorites
Rory McIlroy sits at the top at around +700. This has been one of his best spots on tour throughout the years as he's won in 2010, 2015 and 2021. With the driver being so important, it's just fit his eye to perfection.
Behind him are Patrick Cantlay, Xander Schauffele and Tony Finau in the +1200 to +1400 range. All three should play better here, but never have. None have finished inside the top 10 and both Schauffele and Cantlay tend to avoid it on their schedules. I'll end up steering clear of this range.
The +2000s has a deep group of players that Viktor Hovland, Collin Morikawa, Cameron Young, Jordan Spieth, Justin Thomas, Matthew Fitzpatrick, Max Homa, Sungjae Im and Jason Day.
Normally, we might see some of these guys open in the tier below or above, but this week, they're all jammed together. Day and Thomas have wins here, as does Homa, who notably broke through at 500-1 before elevating to the star he is today. Hovland and Young will be popular with their ability off the tee.
Of this group, I'm going with Jordan Spieth at 22-1 on bet365. Spieth was the Presidents Cup star last year, going 5-0. We've seen him add a little distance off the tee, which will definitely benefit him. He's been completely dialed this year. The irons have returned to an elite level and the short game remains solid. I think we're getting a good number on him because of limited and lackluster stroke play results. But last year showed that this venue is in his comfort zone.
The Mid-Tier
I'm steering clear for now, though Sam Burns draws my attention. He hasn't shown it yet, though, and +3300 is a little lower than what I'd like.
The Longshots
In the past, this has been a course where guys who can drive the ball well can pop. I mentioned Homa earlier. We also had Derek Ernst show up at 500-1 as well when he really only had one PGA-caliber club in his bag — it just so happened to be the driver.
I'll open here with Cam Davis at 125-1 on BetRivers. Davis is starting to get his game back after a slow start to the season. We've gotten top 20s from him in three of his last four starts. Davis also got some experience at this course in the Presidents Cup, going 2-3 against the heavily favored Americans. We know he's going to be long — with the results coming around, this is a chance for him to peak at a course that fits his style.
I'm also going to Sam Stevens at 200-1 on BetRivers. Stevens is a long-hitting rookie who, again, should fit the style required to have success. We got a couple top-three finishes out of him in weaker fields prior to the Masters. This would be a step up for him, but he's another guy who checks the long-shot box for me.
We'll go back to S.H. Kim at 210-1 on FanDuel. Kim was on the Mexico Open card and finished with a solid top 25 last week. I like him on courses that are driver heavy. That seems to be his strength so far in his rookie year, as it was on the KFT last year.
Pick: S.H. Kim |
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Next, I'll take a chance on Davis Thompson at 350-1 on BetRivers. Surprise, he's another bomber off the tee. He went toe-to-toe with Rahm at the Amex and showed that day that he can hold his own when pressed by the best. He also picked up his Korn Ferry win in Raleigh, another North Carolina stop that has favored long hitters in the past. James Hahn is a guy who won that stop on the KFT before winning here a few years later at 300-1. I think Thompson is worth a flier to have a repeat of that performance given his talent level.
We'll go even further down with Alejandro Tosti at 500-1. Tosti is really long as well and carried his Korn Ferry form into a top-10 result in Mexico last week to gain entry into the field. Tosti is good enough to get a card from the KFT this season, but another good result and he can lock up some status a few months early.
It wouldn't be Wells Fargo if we didn't go Ernst hunting for someone completely off the wall, so that's where Trevor Cone comes in at 1000-1. He's struggled on tour, but he is well above average distance wise, and this is a bit of a home game for the Charlotte native, so I'll throw the dart.
This is a tough event with so many names at the top, but given the nature of the course and how it skews so hard to one playing style, this is how I tend to bet this event. I think these guys are worth top-20 type plays if you want to get some more favorable odds and find a way to come out ahead if they do sneak into contention.
Wells Fargo Championship Card
- Jordan Spieth +2200 (1.5 units)
- Cameron Davis +12500 (.22 units)
- Sam Stevens +20000 (.17 units)
- S.H. Kim +21000 (.15 units)
- Davis Thompson +35000 (.09 units)
- Alejandro Tosti +50000 (.07 units)
- Trevor Cone +100000 (.03 units)
