Oddsmakers have continued to post awkward betting boards over the past month that are doing a quality job (if you are the casino) of placing fade candidates against other fade candidates. That is something that is not necessarily the optimal path for us since shops have done their homework and made adequate changes of not providing those typical one-sided matchups at -110 juice.
One of the ways to combat that issue is to have a plethora of books at your disposal since matchups will vary between shops in the space. There is one quality matchup option for the first round that does land inside that desirable 20-point edge bucket featuring Patrick Rodgers vs. Alex Noren. Let's see if we can use that to our advantage to get off to a fast start at Quail Hollow Club for the 2023 Wells Fargo Championship.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Wells Fargo Championship Matchup Pick
Patrick Rodgers -125 Over Alex Noren (bet365)
I have always been forthcoming that my model runs things from a two-year perspective to avoid recency bias that can plague and place you in a precarious position. However, it is interesting here because my four-month returns for Alex Noren are starting to diminish anything I am running from a regression model standpoint.
The Swede ranked a putrid 99th in this field for weighted tee-to-green, a recalculation I made to mimic Quail Hollow. And while the Bermuda putting greens and more arduous scoring conditions salvage an otherwise flat profile, there are some problems from a weighted scoring perspective when we look at a complete loss of proximity from beyond 150 yards. That is something we see heavily matter when you look at 73% of approaches coming from that range this week.
On the flip side of that answer, Patrick Rodgers has generated three consecutive finishes on Tour inside the top 20 over the last month, and it doesn't hurt matters that he produced as one of only six golfers to grade inside the top 45 of all six statistical categories that I ran for the week. I will include the names of these players in the screenshot below, but please note that many of the main options who got removed from that list failed because of their putting totals.
Even though we do need a little more upside than usual for these daily matchups, safety will always take precedence when finding value on these boards. Thankfully, that is something we get here in spades when talking about Rodgers' high floor and Noren's shaky outlook, making this a wager I had properly priced closer to the -150 range for Thursday.
