Can you imagine canceling an event that produces a final four of Scottie Scheffler, Sam Burns, Cameron Young and Rory McIlroy? I can't envision a more exciting Sunday and it's sure to deliver plenty of fireworks.
For Scheffler, this is the third consecutive season he finds himself in the semis. A victory over Burns would mean he's also made it to the finals in each of those three appearances. We also have the 2015 champion (different course) in McIlroy, who has proven to be a match-play dynamo over the years.
And we can't forget about Burns and Young — two golfers who have looked unbeatable at times this week. If nothing else, this event needs to come back in the rotation before long, and I hope we see it at Austin Country Club when that does occur.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Outright odds for the tournament below as of 11:30 p.m. ET on Saturday night and via FanDuel.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler +135 |
Pick: Rory McIlroy +200 |
Pick: Cameron Young +370 |
Pick: Sam Burns +500 |
Final Four
Scottie Scheffler vs. Sam Burns
Good friends. Good matchup. This is one of those spots where Scheffler's inefficiencies with the putter aren't as diminishing as they should be, because of his clutch ability to produce when it matters most. However, this is the first real situation in which he will be facing a golfer with a more efficient GIR percentage for match play from inside my model.
None of that suggests Scheffler should be viewed as anything but a 60-65% favorite to get himself into the finals, but Burns is not a walkover matchup. I will stick with my model and say the reigning champion holds court and gets himself into his third straight finals, but it might be tight early.
Pick: Scottie Scheffler
Rory McIlroy vs. Cameron Young
Nobody ever said capturing a first PGA Tour title would be easy. Young will have to earn it Sunday, but let's focus on the first battle Sunday morning as shops have McIlroy somewhere in the 60%+ range to win.
Beyond anything else, I tend to believe Young's price is inflated because of McIlroy's name stature. My model has this much closer to 50/50 than some of the totals you can find in the space, but a lot is riding on this for me since the American stands as my last remaining rollover candidate from the group stage.
Young graded inside the top six for five of the nine categories I ran from a statistical perspective this week, and the hope is McIlroy's putter fails to cooperate early in the day. We have seen Young blitz the field continuously over the opening nine holes.
Pick: Cameron Young
Finals
Scottie Scheffler vs. Cameron Young
We have talked enough about both these players this week. Everyone knows about Young's potential Scheffler's dominance. We know anything can happen over 18 holes of match-play golf, but I am going to stick my flag in the sand and say Young finally gets himself across the finish line for his first PGA Tour title.
If you are rolling these bets over, the amount of risk you want to take on for any of these matchups is solely up to you. I think that goes without saying in these situations, but some of these totals have gotten massive for those who have been aggressively backing Young since the start. Keep that in mind when you make your wagers, but the profile is ready to win if he can produce on the par-three holes Sunday.
Pick: Cameron Young Outright (+370) |
