We get one final run of the WGC-Dell Match Play this week before the tournament leaves the PGA Tour schedule.
Hopefully we see the format return elsewhere down the road as it's a much needed break in the monotonous marathon of stroke play events currently on the Tour's calendar.
This year, the field is notably weakened. Obviously the LIV guys are gone, but even outside of that, we aren't getting the same number of global players either because of the OWGR tweaks. The DP World Tour sends just three regulars (Ryan Fox, Victor Perez and Adrian Meronk) while the JGTO, who had Takumi Kanaya win his group last year, was completely shut out.
In previous years, we'd see players like Robert MacIntyre or the Hojgaard twins ride their Euro results into an event like this and provide some unusual matchups. Now we just get the J.J. Spauns of the world making up the back end of the field.
The Course
Austin Country Club measures just under 7,100 yards for a par 71. It’s an interesting match-play course that favors a strong off-the-tee game. There are plenty of eagle chances since the par 5s are all reachable, and there’s also a drivable par 4.
We don’t necessarily need a bomber, though, for this Pete Dye design. Having a strong resume on Dye courses can help, as we saw when Kevin Kisner beat Matt Kuchar for the title back in 2019.
The main defense for this course is the wind. Texas can get breezy this time of year, which puts even more of a premium on ball striking. Scottie Scheffler has been riding that comfort in the Lone Star State in his past couple of appearances, placing second in his debut before winning last year.
The Favorites
Scottie Scheffler sits at the top of the odds at +800 but didn't get any real favors here. He drew Tom Kim, the best of the Pool B players, Alex Noren, who has a solid match play record here at 11-5, and Davis Riley.
Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy are next in line at +1100. McIlroy is in the middle of some equipment changes it seems like with an eye already focused on Augusta. He'd be a prime pick to get knocked out early this week, but his draw is about as easy as it comes.
McIlroy will face Keegan Bradley, whose 1-12-6 career singles match-play record is just comical at this point, along with Scott Stallings and Denny McCarthy, who haven't played the course. McCarthy has the short game to be a sleeper out of that group.
Rahm's group is interesting. He's matched with past winner Billy Horschel along with Keith Mitchell and Rickie Fowler, who don't have much success here as of yet but are in great form.
My bets will start in this range with Collin Morikawa and Tyrrell Hatton. This event got the major treatment. The odds were up for months and didn't adjust until today, so Hatton and Morikawa had solid prices available. Hatton now sits at +2500 and Morikawa is at +2800 on DraftKings.
Hatton got a favorable draw with Russell Henley, Lucas Herbert and Ben Griffin in his group. Henley has only won two of his nine matches in three appearances on the course. Griffin is making his debut at the event and definitely has the short game to cause issues, but overall, he doesn't really have experience in the format at this level.
Herbert played fine last year, winning a couple matches, but his current form is lacking the past couple months with no finishes inside the top 50 over his past four starts.
Pick: Tyrrell Hatton Outright |
For Morikawa, his group is a little tricky. Jason Day, Victor Perez and Adam Svensson all enter in good form and are good course fits, so now that the odds have moved, I don't know if I'd be so eager to jump back in. Day has won on this course before while Perez made the semifinals in his debut. Svensson fits the prototype of sleepers here with his accurate tee-to-green game and strong short game.
The Midtier
In this range, I made two early picks on Tommy Fleetwood (+4500) and Hideki Matsuyama (+5000). Of the two, I think Fleetwood got the best draw. He's up against Sungjae Im, J.T. Poston and Maverick McNealy. He drew the lowest ranked Pool A player in Im. Poston and McNealy are solid, but Fleetwood would be the favorite in either of those matches.
Matsuyama didn't have the best of luck here. He was drawn into Max Homa's group with Kevin Kisner and Justin Suh. Kisner's record here is well documented, and Suh is a good fit here in his rookie year. Then we have Homa, of course, who's in great form even though he has yet to advance out of his group in two tries here.
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright |
