The atmosphere at TPC Scottsdale on Saturday was everything we expected it to be as drinks and emotions were flowing throughout the venue. That permeated throughout the course as poor shots were booed and great ones were raucously cheered.
Adam Hadwin put the cherry on top of the day as his tee shot on the par-3 16th was the last of the day and also the best, leading to a tap-in birdie and drinks raining down from the stands. Scottie Scheffler was unable to match that birdie on the stadium hole, but he did pick one up on the par-4 17th and that brought him to his current position at 13-under and two shots ahead of Jon Rahm going into Sunday.
It will be another matchup of World No. 2 and World No. 3 as both Scheffler and Rahm have a chance to move into the top position with a win and some help from their counterparts at the top of the world rankings.
They'll be joined Sunday by a different Canadian, Nick Taylor, who is tied alongside Rahm at 11-under. The field is stacked with big names behind them, including Jason Day, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele, Tyrrell Hatton and Sungjae Im.
As I noted yesterday, this is a tournament where we typically see the winner come from behind to get it done. Eight of the past nine champions of this event were trailing going into Sunday. In fact, Fowler in 2019 is the only 54-hole leader to close the deal and he may have made it the most interesting of all.
We saw Scheffler close out an overnight lead in the final round at the Masters last year, but since then he has lost two tournaments on Sunday. He couldn't close at the Charles Schwab last May and then faltered again at the Tour Championship to close out the season.
Scheffler isn't bullet proof in this situation, so we will still look for someone to take his crown as we dive into the final round at the WM Phoenix Open.
Strokes Gained Explanation
Strokes Gained can give golf bettors, DFS players and fans way more detail on how a golfer has truly played by measuring each shot in relation to the rest of the field.
Using the millions of data points it collects, the TOUR calculates how many shots on average it takes a player to get the ball in the hole from every distance and situation. If a player beats those averages, he’s gaining strokes on the field.
Every situation in golf is different. Strokes Gained measures how players perform relative to the situation.
In this piece, we’ll touch on a variety of Strokes Gained metrics:
- Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Strokes Gained: Around-the-Green
- Strokes Gained: Putting
- Strokes Gained: Ball Striking (which is Off-the-Tee + Approach)
- Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green (which is Ball-Striking + Around-the-Green)
In general, SG: Ball Striking and SG: Tee-to-Green are the most stable long term, while putting is more prone to volatility.
You can often find live-betting advantages by identifying golfers who are hitting the ball well, but are just not getting putts to drop. Likewise, players with high SG: Putting numbers may regress moving forward.
3 Golfers to Buy in Round 4
There are a number of players who could be highlighted as having played well, but not quite gotten the most out of their round. I would put most of Rahm's day on the other end of the spectrum as he didn't play overly well, but he held everything together to get the most out of his score.
I don't expect we will see Rahm continue to struggle off the tee on Sunday and if he pairs that with the approach play and putter we saw save par on many occasions Saturday, he will be the winner at the end of the day.
Pick: Jon Rahm +290 |
What is QuickSlip?
QuickSlip is an Action Network feature that allows users to automatically pre-load their bet slip at FanDuel Sportsbook.
Rahm lost 1.55 shots off the tee, which is a story on it's own, as he is in the 1A, 1B conversation alongside Rory McIlroy as the best driver in the world. The driver got him in a lot of trouble in Round 3, but he was able to play smart to get back into position to save par and he did just that nearly every time.
I expect we'll see Rahm return to his typical driving in the final round, which will put more pressure on his playing partners and ultimately, I think, lead to another Rahm victory in 2023.
Rahm's odds aren't great for a solo outright, but if you pair them alongside your favorite Super Bowl bet or prop, you can have a fun sweat on Sunday night.
Jordan Spieth was one of the players who didn't get much out of some really good play. He certainly saved it with a few birdies down the stretch, but Spieth was solid with his game tee-to-green on Saturday and just simply couldn't get the scoring going until late in the round.
He's a player I like to ride through the end when he shows good form as we know he can go low at any given time. Spieth usually tells us early in a week if he has his game with him and he has certainly done that this week as he ranks second both on approach and tee-to-green this week. If he keeps that going and can get some early momentum, he can challenge for the win, which makes his +1600 odds attractive.
If I'm digging for a long shot, I'd turn to Tony Finau. He's +4000 at nearly every sportsbook going into Sunday and is quietly in the group at 8-under.
Finau was the best player in the entire field tee-to-green on Saturday, gaining more than a shot in every metric of that category and 4.49 shots total. His putter left a bunch out there as he lost 1.37 shots to the field on the greens, but he can go really low at any time. If he can find the putter on Sunday, he's not out of it from five shots back.
