2023 WM Phoenix Open Odds, Picks: Our Staff’s Best Bets for Sam Burns, Justin Thomas, Tommy Fleetwood & More

Welcome to the biggest party in golf.

Our staff has its WM Phoenix Open picks ready ahead of the perfect appetizer in the Phoenix area for the Super Bowl. Sunday, the winner of this tournament will net more than $3 million right before the Chiefs and Eagles face off about 25 miles away.

Last year, this tournament lasted into the first quarter of Rams vs. Bengals, with Scottie Scheffler needing extra holes to get his first PGA Tour win in a playoff over Patrick Cantlay. None of our experts are betting Scheffler to repeat, although one is high on Cantlay.

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Favorite We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Collin Morikawa
• Chris Murphy: Tony Finau
• Matt Vincenzi: Justin Thomas
• Spencer Aguiar: Patrick Cantlay
• Nick Bretwisch: Jon Rahm

Pick: Patrick Cantlay +2100

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Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Rickie Fowler
• Murphy: Jhonattan Vegas
• Vincenzi: Brendan Steele
• Aguiar: J.T. Poston
• Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Viktor Hovland
• Murphy: Jordan Spieth
• Vincenzi: Max Homa
• Aguiar: Hayden Buckley
• Bretwisch: Cameron Young

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Sam Burns
• Murphy: Brian Harman
• Vincenzi: Tyrrell Hatton
• Aguiar: Brian Harman
• Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood

Trend That Guides Your Betting Strategy

Sobel: My trend is a non-trend — and yes, I’ll explain what that means.

For as much as I look at analytics on a weekly basis, I’ve always tried to humanize any wagers by factoring in a player’s personality and how it might align to a specific tournament. That means more here than most other events, because this one is so unique.

As a result, I’ve often targeted players who are confident, have some swagger and enjoy being in the spotlight. That’s been a winning formula at times, as Brooks Koepka, Rickie Fowler, Gary Woodland and Phil Mickelson are all champions who have fit the profile. But it’s hardly foolproof. Last year’s winner, Scottie Scheffler, isn’t exactly a cocky dude, nor are fellow recent winners Webb Simpson and Hideki Matsuyama.

Moral of the story? While a player’s inner resolve can certainly be a factor this week, there’s more than one type of personality who can find success here.

Murphy: There will be a lot of talk about course history and the importance of experience around this tournament at TPC Scottsdale. Part of that will be centered around the unique atmosphere, but rather than try to figure out who may be able to handle that well, I’m simply dialing in on ball strikers.

The one theme regarding skillset year after year at this tournament is a player’s ball striking ability on a course that will play firm and fast, testing every aspect of their game tee to green. Players won’t be able to fake it off the tee or on approach this week, they’ll have to be dialed in to contend and that will be far and away my most important metric in looking for golfers this week.

Aguiar:  When we are looking at this tournament and figuring out what metrics matter, there is a reason we have seen putting a few percentage points lower here when it comes to the dispersion of scoring in the past few iterations of this contest. Sure, the greens can be firm and fast, generating awkward looks because of the speed, but all of that emphasizes the need for pure ball-strikers.

Over 50% of my statistical interaction when constructing my numbers for this tournament came when highlighting some combination of off-the-tee or approach totals.

Bretwisch: I’m keeping it simple this week with fairway-finding ball strikers who can make putts. I do value course history a bit this week as the event is a bit more “predictable” than many others on tour, but debutants seem to have plenty of success here if they come in with good ball striking form.

Best Bets

Sobel: Sam Burns +4200

In most situations, we examine some statistical combination of form and course history to help suggest a rationale behind our bets. There are also certain times, we’ll all admit, when our gut influences a hunch play.

And then there are times like these, when an outright price seems so egregious that you must jump on it, even if those previous reasons don’t necessarily align.

This price feels like an injustice toward this four-time champion. I suppose we can understand it: Burns looked inconsistent at the end of last year, rusty at the beginning of this year and failed to make the cut in three of his four prior appearances at this tournament. But then there’s this: He finished T-11 in his most recent start at The AmEx, where he gained strokes in every major category, and serves as a smart comp to his buddy Scheffler, who happened to win this one last year.

At half this price, Burns might not have garnered too much interest from me, but at the current number, his name leaps off the board as a mid-tier play on a top-tier player. I’ll use this to supplement outrights on Collin Morikawa and Sungjae Im, each of whom owns shorter odds in the marketplace.

Pick: Sam Burns +4200

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Murphy: Hayden Buckley – Top 20 (+500)

The outrights I’ve made this week are on players at numbers that are no longer available, so I’ll take a different angle for my best bet of the week and target a good number for a top-20 from Hayden Buckley.

Buckley was the player that fell short of Si Woo Kim in the Sony Open in January, but really showed us his talent at the time. He continued his great play the following week at the American Express, where he posted all four rounds in the sixties and followed it up with a strong start at Torrey Pines before a dreadful 80 in the heavy winds in Round 2 on the South Course.

If you look at the Strokes Gained numbers, that 80 will skew things for him because it was the only measured round of the week. Prior to that, though, he had a stretch of nine straight rounds in the sixties. He ranks 12th in this field over the short term in Ball Striking (SG: Off the Tee plus SG: Approach) and checks the boxes as a top 10 type of player in additional metrics like Total Driving.

All of this adds up to me really liking the chances to see Buckley in the mix for a top finish and on BetMGM where ties are paid in full, these are some nice odds to get him for a top-20 type of finish.

Vincenzi: Justin Thomas (+2200)

This is an event I’ve always thought Justin Thomas was destined to win. As we’ve seen at both the Ryder Cup and the President’s Cup, “JT” is a player who thrives off of energy from the crowd and he’ll certainly get his fair share of that this week in Scottsdale.

Since Thomas’ PGA Championship win back in May 2022, it’s been a mixed bag of results both in terms of finishes and statistically. He’s had some good weeks but it certainly hasn’t been up to the standard we’ve grown accustomed to for the superstar. However, as an elite player on TOUR, whenever his odds start to drift back to the 20-1 range it’s time to get back on. The 29-year-old is a great player who wins big time events, and with the WMPO being an elevated event this year it certainly fits the description.

Thomas has played some great golf at TPC Scottsdale. Last year, he finished eighth and gained 7.1 strokes on approach, which was second in the field behind only Bubba Watson. Additionally, “JT” has third-place finishes in both 2019 and ‘20, as well as a 13th place finish in ‘21.

With fifteen career PGA TOUR wins, Thomas doesn’t often go too long without getting a win. I believe he breaks his mini-drought this week in the desert.

Pick: Sam Burns +2100

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Aguiar: J.T. Poston 50th or Better -120 (bet365)

When you see me recommending a non-head-to-head wager as my favorite bet of the week, you know something has gone horribly wrong with the board from a value perspective. None of that is to suggest that I don't like J.T. Poston's chances to secure a finish inside the top 50, but this slate is as watered-down as you can imagine when trying to find an edge.

Poston has generated four consecutive finishes at this tournament of 37th or better since 2019. Not to mention that his four straight top-21 results to begin the 2023 season will only add to that emerging level of play we have recently gotten out of the 29-year-old.

Bretwisch: Tommy Fleetwood – Top 40 (+120, FanDuel)

We haven’t seen Tommy Fleetwood stateside since the CJ Cup in South Carolina back in October (where he finished T4 and gained strokes in every category), but he will make his return to the USA for the WM Phoenix Open.

I’ll be overexposed to “ball-striking Jesus” in almost every facet of this event, and that will start with plus money in the top-40 market. My numbers grade Fleetwood as the 19th-best golfer in this event and would price him right around (-130) in this market. I’ll take 50 points of expected value any chance that I can get. I love that sharper books in the market have him as a favorite to elite golfers like Burns (who is priced at -160 on FanDuel in this same top-40 market).

Pick: Tommy Fleetwood Top 40 (+120)

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