It has been a hot run for us in the outright market to begin the fall season. Our three victories in five contests shifts us above a 40% ROI in 2023 year in that sector, which adds to what has been a stellar pre-tournament head-to-head return that is pushing 64.58% over 50 wagers.
I always make the argument that matchup bets are where you want the majority of your weekly units because of the long-term edge that we can create. However, I'll roll with the recent run of outright success for this article and highlight a board that lacks much value in other spots because of the lack of data surrounding El Cardonal Golf Course at Diamante.
If you want exposure elsewhere, I will be bucking public sentiment and backing Callum Tarren -120 over Cameron Champ. That is a wager you can find over at Caesars Sportsbook. An extensive breakdown of my stance can be found on this week's Links + Locks Podcast, which I recorded with Roberto Arguello, as the two of us handicapped the entire slate from top to bottom.
Action’s Caesars Sportsbook promo code unlocks $1,000 in bonus bets for new sign-ups.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
World Wide Technology Championship Outright Picks
We had a few routes to consider regarding this board for the 2023 World Wide Technology Championship. Removing the built-in expected win rates of choices like Scottie Scheffler, Jon Rahm and Rory McIlroy will always help to create value down the slate when the brunt of the win equity isn't being taken away upfront.
I didn't find options like Ludvig Aberg and Cameron Young to be egregiously overpriced as the favorites. I thought each golfer warranted consideration because of a skillset that should pick El Cardonal apart.
However, my rule of thumb has always been that I generally need 16/1+ when chasing an elite talent attempting to win his first title on the PGA Tour.
Still, I didn't find myself in love with taking on the elite off-the-tee duo during this week's wide-open layout. For that reason, I kept my card marginally shorter in exposure and decided to start with my first name below.
Beau Hossler +2800
Beau Hossler is delivering a very Sahith Theegala-like output to begin the fall season after jumping 48 spots with his recent Weighted Proximity versus his long-term baseline.
Theegala showcased this during his coming out party at the Fortinet Championship, and the upside marks continue when diving into his tournament-leading 19 consecutive rounds of shooting par or better and four straight top-30 finishes over the opening four fall events.
Hossler's trend of bettering each finish after going 30th, 28th, seventh and second means that a trip to the winner's circle is the only result that can finalize his recent run.
The Texas Longhorn ranks among the top five in this field for Strokes Gained: Total at accessible venues, Expected Par-4 Scoring and Recent Strokes Gained: Total, which should only propel the optimism that the talented 28-year-old crosses the finish line at El Cardonal.
Davis Thompson +5000
Can Davis Thompson make enough putts to win a birdie shootout? That will be the significant ask that Thompson needs to answer if he wants to win his first PGA Tour event.
We've seen him demonstrate this capability at a birdie fest in the past from the talented youngster. The American barely missed out on his first career title at The American Express earlier this year after firing a 26-under mark that landed him one behind winner Jon Rahm.
Thompson's 26-spot improvement for putting over his last 24 rounds only adds to the profile of a golfer who ranked first in my model for Par-5 Birdie or Better Percentage.
I have been a firm believer that not all distance golfers are suited for success here and frequently will find themselves overinflated when it comes to their expected finish. However, this is one of those spots where the distance advantage Thompson possesses plays well when comparing it to similar courses.
Nick Hardy +9000
J.J. Spaun was the golfer who graded as the most substantial outlier for me in win equity at the Zozo Championship before he flirted with the title on Sunday, eventually losing to our primary choice of Collin Morikawa.
While I do believe we are getting into a more volatile choice here who possesses a wider range of outcomes, Nick Hardy is this week's version of Spaun when highlighting a golfer who may be going off at double the price of what I had projected.
Hardy's eight made cuts in nine starts should show more safety than we have grown accustomed to for the 149th-ranked player in the world, and his top-10 grades for Strokes Gained: Total at course with wide fairways, Strokes Gained: Total on Slow Greens and Driving plus Proximity makes him worth the flier at a generous price of 90/1.
Stephan Jaeger +2800
We have reached the point this season where I am hiding Stephan Jaeger at the bottom of these articles after recommending him during nearly every start of 2023.
Frankly, one top-10 finish in 25 tournaments has not been good enough for a golfer whom my model deems to be elite.
Nonetheless, something needs to be said about the fact that sportsbooks and my model have yet to lose optimism for his potential when he continues to be listed as a favorite week in and week out.
His 15 consecutive made cuts and first-place grade for Weighted Scoring will have me taking another shot on a golfer who has burned me continuously, but I genuinely believe Jaeger is a top-30 talent on Tour. I don't know when he will win, but my money is on it happening sooner rather than later if we keep getting these prices over 25/1 in marginal fields.
Jaeger is starting to remind me of 2016 Tony Finau. We just need one victory to open the floodgates for a golfer who won six times on the Korn Ferry Tour.
