We knew El Cardonal had a chance to deliver a winning score that could approach the 30-under-par range with fairways that averaged nearly 60 yards in width.
I've been on the record for the past few years stating that these contests are far from ideal for most golf fans. The highly educated bettor doesn't like them because the low-scoring affair creates a convoluted betting board that opens up the possibilities for all golfers involved. As a data-driven person, the last thing I want to see is a wide-open tournament that requires someone to birdie nearly half the holes in order to win. That doesn't feel like professional golf and seems more like something we'd expect to see on a putt-putt course.
All of that would be fine if everyone else enjoyed the production because golf isn't only appealing to bettors. However, I'm not sure who is winning here if the best players aren't even involved. Nobody wants to watch golf's version of the NBA All-Star game.
Obviously, my view will flip if Stephan Jaeger captures his first title, though there is a reason my betting card has remained minimal in exposure and is likely to stay that way as much as possible.
Betting is about finding long-term value and it is hard to find that when the data is convoluted from the endless scoring.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Leaderboard (Play Suspended)
Official cut will take place Saturday morning.
With only three players left on the course (and two needing to make birdie if they want to play the weekend), players can lock in five-under par as the number they need if they want tee time booked for Saturday and Sunday.
Pre-Tournament Model
I've talked extensively about the volatility that a birdie-fest brings to the mix as it keeps more players in the hunt. Still, it is hard to ignore the opposite end of that answer as nine of my top 10 pre-event players made the cut.
That should be viewed as a decent conversion rate when considering that Sahith Theegala had the worst win equity of the favorite. It also doesn't hurt that nine of the top 13 players on the leaderboard placed in the top 30 of my model before a ball was hit Thursday.
Best Outright Values Pre-Tournament (Top-30 Players Only)
Of course, that doesn't mean everything was perfect. We see that with some of our strongest values that placed in the top 30 of my model missing the cut. The Callum Tarren loss stings a little more since it also produced a head-to-head loss to the surging Cameron Champ. Nonetheless, there were intriguing names that popped when diving into the likes of Carson Young, Michael Kim, Nate Lashley, Nick Hardy, Chesson Hadley, Davis Thompson and others.
My outright card landed in a range of four targets, but I'm afraid we'll find ourselves in a spot where Nick Hardy and Beau Hossler are too far back to win this title. Still, I'm going to hold the line on Thompson and Jaeger for another day before getting further involved in this contest with any additional wagers.
The lack of data is troubling when it comes to finding value, although there are reasons to be optimistic that Thompson and Jaeger will finally get across the finish line. They both possess built-in length and a propensity to get hot with the irons.
