Matt Kuchar and Camilo Villegas share the overnight lead at 19-under after Kuchar made a shocking quadruple bogey on the 15th hole and followed it up with an additional bogey on the 16th. That is a vast disparity from Villegas, who birdied five of his final nine holes to work up the leaderboard.
We'll see where all of that leads us Sunday as the World Wide Technology Championship is still an open contest that will deliver birdies in bunches. So, let's look over the long-term data and see if we can locate some betting value.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Final Round
This comes down to the weekly discussion we have about how far back is too far back to win entering Sunday. That is something my model has tracked over the past few years, and I'm going to provide a little information that my model has accumulated over the past 121 tournaments.
Entering Sunday, 117 of 121 players have been in the top 10 (96.7%).
I do want to note that my model doesn't eliminate the names at 14-under since three of those four occasions have occurred with a golfer within five shots of the lead.
That gives me some optimism about a robust pre-tournament target like Sam Ryder or Ryan Palmer, who are at 14-under par. Of course, the data still heavily suggests that the winner will come from the top 10, but I don't mind taking a small longshot on Ryder or Palmer if you're looking for a shot-in-the-dark flier.
Additionally, 19 of 121 players have been four shots (or more) away from the lead (15.7%).
It has been a relatively even mix of where those 19 players landed on the leaderboard when Sunday started. Ten of the options were seventh or worse, while nine placed between second and sixth.
Sunday Value
I tend to believe that most of the expected win equity should land in that Matt Kuchar, Erik Van Rooyen, Will Gordon and Justin Suh mix. There is a reason each is grading under 10/1 to capture the title, and that's before we discuss some of the lesser options inside of my sheet.
The nature of the venue does create an intriguing possibility to work our way down the leaderboard, but I don't want to get carried away dumping units into an already forgettable contest. However, I am going to take some small shots on Michael Kim 35/1 and Carson Young 55/1.
Michael Kim 35/1
Kim was included alongside the final names to miss my card pre-event. His top-10 win equity return was boosted by the fact that he delivered top-20 marks for expected total driving, easy scoring and the increase he received on slower greens. The additional top 20 the American posted for distance/proximity should only enhance a profile that watched him capture his only career title at the John Deere Classic at 26-under par.
Kim probably will need one of those eight-to-10-under production days since I can't imagine the winner doesn't get to a minimum of 23-under, but we know that outcome is possible for a golfer who went 63-64-64 during his victory. Another round like that on Sunday could get him into the mix for win number two.
Carson Young 55/1
Carson Young was one of the players my model correctly identified prior to the tournament.
The volatility was always going to be the question in some markets as Young had missed back-to-back cuts at the Sanderson Farms and Shriners Open. Still, the high-end production should play nicely for a one-day shootout that will require birdies in bunches.
We're dealing with minimal expected value, so we're not betting much, but the longshot possibility is certainly there Sunday.
| Golfer | Odds | Risk | Win |
| Michael Kim | 35 | 0.12 | 4.2 |
| Carson Young | 55 | 0.08 | 4.4 |
