Our staff has analyzed the 2023 Wyndham Championship odds board and found their 2023 Wyndham Championship Best Bets and other expert picks for this week's PGA Tour event at Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, North Carolina.
Check out our Action Network golf betting expert picks and previews for the Wyndham Championship, including picks for Alex Noren, Denny McCarthy, Hideki Matsuyama & more as we go through our 2023 Wyndham Championship best bets.
2023 Wyndham Championship Best Bets
Jason Sobel: Denny McCarthy +2700 (bet365)
McCarthy's first-round tee time: 1:33 p.m. ET
The question of “Who’s the best player without a PGA Tour victory?” used to be innocent enough, as our minds would race toward those who have continually come close, and we’d pick from that list.
These days, the analytics can take some guesswork out of a query which admittedly requires increased parameters, as disparate responses of Cameron Young or Tommy Fleetwood might tell us more about how we judge this competition than about the competitors themselves.
All of which is a very roundabout, long-winded way of getting to the point that Denny McCarthy probably doesn’t top anyone’s list, but he shouldn’t be too far down. Ranked 32nd in the world, McCarthy has experienced plenty of close calls this season alone, with a half-dozen top-10 finishes, though none closer than a playoff loss at the Memorial Tournament. He played better golf than everyone else for 35 holes on the weekend, made a forgivable bogey on the last of the final round, then got blindsided by Viktor Hovland in a playoff.
Still, it all feels like things are trending in a very nice direction for him – a direction which should be leading to that elusive first career victory. On a golf course that requires accuracy, strong short-iron play and a hot flatstick, one of the game’s best putters should thrive.
He quizzically missed the cut here last year, but in the four previous years he finished 15th-9th-22nd-36th, with every round at par or better and 15 of the 16 in red figures. This feels like the perfect spot for McCarthy to cross his name off that aforementioned list.
Pick: Denny McCarthy Outright |
Chris Murphy: Hideki Matsuyama +1800 (FanDuel)
Matsuyama's first-round tee time: 1:00 p.m. ET
Hideki Matsuyama is one player who keeps teeing it up week after week in an effort to solidify himself inside the top 50 (the cutoff for the second playoff event) of the FedExCup Standings. He seems to be getting further past a lingering neck issue, and it's starting to show in flashes of his play.
The former Masters Champion finished T30 this past week at the 3M, but it was really just one bad round that did him in, as he shot 1-over on Saturday to drop out of contention for a high finish. He lost strokes in all metrics tee to green during that third round, losing 3.49 shots to the field, but still finished 6th in SG Tee to Green on the week.
Those numbers show just how well he played across the other three rounds, which included a field-best 4 strokes gained on approach in his final round on Sunday. As I have pointed out in the past, this volatility in top-tier players can often be a sign that they are starting to put things together, and that is my expectation for Hideki going into the Wyndham Championship. He will start the top of my betting card this week on the momentum of some form and a history of playing well on shorter courses like Sedgefield Country Club.
Pick: Hideki Matsuyama Outright +1800 |
Spencer Aguiar: Alex Noren Top 40 +160 (FanDuel)
Noren's first-round tee time: 1:11 p.m. ET
There is nothing to see here – just a man who doesn't know when to stop backing Alex Noren.
It has been a love/hate relationship for me in 2023 with the disappointments I have encountered with the Swede. Still, there is a big difference when discussing projected win rates and safety on Noren at 300/1 at the Masters and 80/1 at the Wyndham Championship.
Bettors with access to Noren -120 over Adam Schenk or Ben Griffin over Sam Stevens might want to consider one of those as my two favorite wagers on the board, but this top-40 bet on Noren is a cheap opportunity that won't take much exposure to get a nice sweat going for the week.
Noren graded first in this field when recalculating the data for a pitch-and-putt contest from 125-175 yards and experienced a 97-spot increase in Projected Birdie Rate on this setup over a generic course on tour.
I know my history with the 41-year-old has been suspect, but this is the best opportunity we have gotten for him value-wise because of the course, form and perception combination.
Pick: Alex Noren Top 40 +160 |
2023 Wyndham Championship Expert Picks, Fades
Favorites We’re Backing
- Jason Sobel: Russell Henley
- Chris Murphy: Hideki Matsuyama
- Spencer Aguiar: Chris Kirk
Best Long Shot
- Sobel: Billy Horschel
- Murphy: Alex Smalley
- Aguiar: Ben Griffin
Biggest Bust
- Sobel: Ludvig Aberg
- Murphy: Justin Thomas
- Aguiar: Adam Schenk
Contrarian Player To Target
- Sobel: Harris English
- Aguiar: Alex Noren
Trend That Guides Your 2023 Wyndham Championship Betting Strategy
Sobel: For as much as the FedExCup playoff push remains an underlying narrative, there isn’t usually much movement back and forth across that magic number. Last year, only two players moved inside the number – and one was Kim, who wasn’t a PGA Tour member before then. The year before, it was three; the year before that, also three.
Once again, the Wyndham Championship returns to Sedgefield Country Club in Greensboro, N.C., which will play just over 7,100 yards, catering to those who keep it in the fairway, knock their wedges tight and can roll in plenty of midrange putts on Bermudagrass greens.
Murphy: This is one of those short courses that has a few crossover spots on Tour that are a strong correlation, with the Sony Open really sticking out the most. I like to use that type of trend as a cross check for players in good form as we try to narrow in on a winner this week.
As a side note, don’t overplay the narratives around the guys on the bubble. It’s nearly impossible to know if the added pressure will help or hurt their game, so just stick to form and course fit for your guide.
Aguiar: Sedgefield Country Club always possesses rollover predictability when we look into its ranking as one of the 12 most consistent venues on Tour in annual success.
Players will receive an 8.2% increase with iron shots between 125-175 yards because of the club-down nature that puts everyone in the same zone approaching these greens. That has generated a pitch-and-putt combination for those who compete to win this tournament.
However, there are a lot of corollary statistics you can run when getting technical, such as historical performances under 7,200 yards, Donald Ross success and par-four scoring between 400-450 yards. That range includes eight of the 12 par-4s and plays as an impactful metric since the field only will get two par-5 holes per day.
