Wyndham Championship Preview
If you bet on golf each week, you are likely familiar with the roller coaster of results. There are times when you see the board extremely clear, and there are times when nothing seems to go right.
The 3M Open was an absolute disaster for yours truly, but those type of weeks are going to happen. It's imperative to trust the process and think of the long-term results rather than the most recent ones.
Let's hope to have more success at this week's Wyndham Championship. This is the last event before the FedExCup Playoffs, so those outside the top 70 in the standings will need a strong performance in order to make it into next week's field.
This event is held at Sedgefield Country Club, which is a Donald Ross design that measures just over 7,100 yards. This is the second-easiest par-70 on the PGA Tour, and six of the last seven Wyndham Championship winners have been at least 20-under par, so we can expect a lot of birdies.
If you dive into the statistics or read any player quotes from past Wyndham Championships, you'll see that this is a less-than-driver course. The average driving distance is one of the lowest that you'll see on the PGA Tour, and that's due to two factors — there are forced layups on some holes, and the penalty for missing the fairway is massive on all of the holes.
There is more than a 30% difference in Greens in Regulation Rate playing from the fairway compared to playing from the rough.
We can throw distance out the window this week, and I'm not factoring in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee. I'm looking at Total Driving and Good Drive Percentage for my off the tee metrics. Given that most golfers will be playing from the same spots in the fairway, iron play will be critical (like most weeks).
While being able to scramble for par is important each week, golfers who miss greens regularly won't contend. Consequently, I'm not placing too much of an emphasis on around the green play.
The course features Bermudagrass throughout, so I don't mind looking at Bermuda putting splits or strokes gained per round on Bermuda courses in general. There has also been a strong correlation between winners at this course and at TPC Sawgrass. Additionally, a few other course comps include Harbour Town, TPC River Highlands and Sea Island.
Sedgefield Country Club Key Statistics
- Strokes Gained: Approach
- Total Driving or Good Drive Percentage
- Birdie or Better Percentage
- Greens in Regulation
- Strokes Gained: Putting (emphasis on Bermuda)
Wyndham Championship Outright Picks
Russell Henley +2000 (FanDuel)
The oddsmakers were more generous than usual at the open on Monday, but the odds board has leveled out as of Tuesday evening with Russell Henley at +2000.
The Georgia Bulldog is coming off of a missed cut at The Open Championship, but he's always struggled on links golf, so it's safe to ignore that performance. Prior to that, he rattled off top-20 finishes in seven of nine starts.
He's accurate off the tee and one of the best in the field on approach, so it's not a surprise to see that he loves this golf course. He has finished T5, T7, and T9 at the Wyndham Championship in the last three years. I like his chances to pull off a win this week.
Pick: Russell Henley Outright +2000 |
Si Woo Kim +2000 (FanDuel)
If you believe in golfers having a happy place, then you should look to get some exposure to Si Woo Kim this week. He has won here and has three other top-five finishes. He has also won at TPC Sawgrass, which is arguably the best comp course for Sedgefield.
Kim is coming off of back-to-back missed cuts, but his underlying ball-striking numbers have been elite over the last few months. He doesn't back down when he's in contention, and that's exactly what we need to look for at these birdie-fests.
Pick: Si Woo Kim Outright +2000 |
Denny McCarthy +2500 (FanDuel)
Denny McCarthy is the top golfer in my model this week, so I was happy to bet him at +2500. He has been in contention so many times this season that he should feel comfortable if he gets into that situation again.
It's hard to imagine a better course for his game, as he's accurate off the tee and the best putter in the world. He's also made major strides with his iron play, which has led to a career year. It's only a matter of time before he secures that first win, and this is as good of a spot as any to do it.
Pick: Denny McCarthy Outright +2500 |
Ben Griffin +8000 (FanDuel)
Ben Griffin really made noise early in the season. Everyone loved the "your accountant is currently top 10 at THE PLAYERS" joke, and he put together a great six-month stretch of golf.
His game tailed off a bit when the summer started, but he seems to have found some form recently. He's finished T33 or better in three of his last four starts and is coming off of a T20 where he gained strokes in all facets.
He is typically seeing all of these courses for the first time since he's a rookie, but he actually played here last year and finished T4. He's accurate, he's solid on approach, and he's a very good putter. We've seen longshots win often here, and perhaps we can add another one to the list.
Pick: Ben Griffin Outright +8000 |
Let's have a week!
