With one week to go before the start of the FedExCup Playoffs, most of the field at Sedgefield Country Club is looking to secure their position in the field.
From a course perspective, you'll notice a very predictive venue at the Wyndham Championship as the track has consistently ranked inside the top 12 on tour in rollover predictably between seasons. That's largely because of the eight par fours that measure between 400-450 yards, which generate an 8.2% increase in expected second-shot distance between 125-175 yards. However, the ability to make putts is something I feel users are undervaluing in their models.
You are going to hear a lot about accuracy, which makes sense, but if you want a deeper dive into my take, be sure to tune into this week's Links & Locks podcast.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Wyndham Championship Outright Bets
Alex Noren +8000
I've had my fair share of struggles backing Alex Noren in different markets this season, but those past failures don't directly correlate with his chances here.
Many of my wagers involving him consisted of a golfer who ranked as a fringe top-30 choice in the field with upside, but also massive downside.
Yes, that's still in play here at the Wyndham Championship, but there's also a substantial deviation in projected win rate and safety on Noren (300/1 at the Masters and 80/1 here at the Wyndham Championship).
My model noticed an enticing trend that shifted him to number one in the field when combining projected make percentage and proximity from 125-175 yards, a range I mentioned earlier.
I understand the long-term birdie projection is not what you want to see for a golfer who will need to get to 20-under par in a "birdie contest." However, the broad misconception I have noticed with Noren is that he typically possesses a better upside at these birdie events. That is something my model pinpointed as he jumped 97 spots in projected birdie rate at this course (compared to a generic stop on tour).
Ben Griffin +9000
There were only 10 players who ranked in the top 45 of all six statistical categories I ran for the week. As a result, the majority of those names ended up making my outright card because that's where the value sits on my board.
The "clickbait" answer is that Ben Griffin graded number one for the week if we want to get technical with that total, but much of that came down to three specific factors.
- We have a general weakness across the board. Everyone has massive flaws.
- I placed a heavier emphasis on course history and current form.
- I used more outlier stats like putting + specific wedge distances. Wonkier statistics changed the expectation rate since I narrowed the data into such a precise range.
Griffin drifted back up the board for upside, which explains the outright pick. However, I also think the 90/1 price presents value on a total that landed 40 points too high.
Chris Kirk +5000
The eight par fours between 400-450 yards are a big part of why we get an 8.2% increase in second shots from 125-175 yards. Well, my model suggests that'll be crucial this week and Chris Kirk grades first in this field in expected scoring when receiving that range.
This is one of those spots — with options like Kirk or Adam Hadwin (+6000) — where the recent form has shifted borderline 40/1 talents too far down the board. I will trust the long-term Donald Ross history and expected strokes gained totals because I don't place much value in a one-off, poor finish at the Open Championship.
Additionally, here's a look at some other golfers I've backed in the outright market:
Stephan Jaeger +4500, Eric Cole +7000, Adam Hadwin +6000 and Taylor Pendrith +8000
