It's been a grind-it-out type of week on the betting side for the Wyndham Championship. Some of the upside wagers I've made have left much to be desired.
We see that with my outright card having just one genuine chance heading into Sunday. I don't think we'll get there on Stephan Jaeger — being five back is a substantial ask — but having a chip and a chair is better than being completely out of the tournament.
I'd give a very similar sentiment on the placement sector. Chesson Hadley (+175) and Alex Noren (+160) for a top 40 can salvage an otherwise forgettable market. However, all is not lost on the event, as things have managed to go well in the weekly head-to-head fades.
I am not going to have anything "official" on tap for the fourth round, but let's talk about a few golfers my model believes were the most significant underachievers of the week when we compared their ball-striking output versus short-game baseline. Maybe that can help push you into a direction at one of your shops or for DFS contests.
All wagers this week can be found below. Red signifies losses that have already taken place. Green are wins that have been graded. Those totals place us at +1.02 units before the final few get their outcome on Sunday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Underachievers
Doug Ghim
According to my model, no player has underachieved in ball-striking expectation more than Doug Ghim.
He placed as one of only three players in this field to produce a minimum of +0.35 shots per round both off the tee + approach. That helped him join overnight leader Lucas Glover, and equally surprising underachiever Joel Dahmen.
None of that promises we will get a turnaround from the -9.68 shots Ghim has floundered away with his flat stick, but the data has pushed him into grading as a top-15 head-to-head value for Sunday.
Harris English
Harris English's 6.09-shot difference in expected performance over three days helped place him behind only Doug Ghim and Joel Dahmen for the largest-discrepancy names of the week.
There are going to be concerns in the profile since 4.46 shots of his 3.64 ball-striking mark came on Friday when he blistered Sedgefield Country Club to the tune of a five-under 65. However, I'm willing to trust the data here for DFS since recent form has been trending for him as a top-15 expected gainer in this field.
The floor has water leaking through the cracks, but some of his off-the-tee data is faulty because an out-of-bounds shot at the par-five 15th on Saturday caused most of the downward spiral we see mathematically.
Si Woo Kim
I labeled Si Woo Kim a fade candidate due to the overabundance of popularity that he was experiencing compared to the form he was bringing to the table. That said, with some gamers finally jumping off for Sunday, it feels like a nice spot to consider him as a golfer listed outside the top 40 of the leaderboard.
Kim's three straight top-five finishes at the property before his withdrawal last season should show the upside we want for a round of golf, and the statistical returns have been consistent over three days.
David Lipsky
Funny enough, many of the reasons I liked Sam Ryder over David Lipsky during their third-round, head-to-head battle will now become relevant for our former opponent.
My model isn't screaming value because the pre-tournament math does have flaws in its construction. Still, I wouldn't entirely remove Lipsky from consideration in head-to-head battles or Round 4 contests because of the high-end potential that is lurking in various outlets.
The American had his best performance of the event in Round 3 with his ball striking, but he couldn't break par on the day. While there are concerns that could come to fruition again on Sunday, I'll sprinkle in DFS and have some unofficial wagers for him in the head-to-head sector because of the contrarian nature of deploying him in different markets.
Andrew Putnam
Outside of players who missed the weekend, if you were to ask me which two golfers have disappointed me most, I would say J.T. Poston and Andrew Putnam.
Putnam got off to a quick start on Thursday by posting a top-five ball-striking total, but the wheels started to unravel over his next 36 holes, evidenced by him losing -1.51 strokes to the field.
None of that is ideal if we are expecting a bounce-back effort on Sunday. Nonetheless, I will trust the pre-event data that graded him in the top 15 for strokes gained total at courses under 7,200 yards and at accessible scoring properties.
