The 2023 Zozo Championship is upon us as the PGA Tour heads to Chiba, Japan. Venues like the Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club that lack data are always challenging because they take away much of the handicapping strategy.
But we can certainly still extrapolate out proximity data based on specific variables. That part of the game is easy enough to form a more advanced opinion. Still, I always keep things minimal from an exposure sense when the trifecta of limited data, a no-cut contest and the smaller field narrative pops to the forefront of the conversation.
I will take my shots here and there, but it will be a light week for the bankroll that saw most of my weekly exposure land on K.H. Lee -120 over Joel Dahmen before that number shifted early on Tuesday afternoon.
We will do our best in this article to talk about who I believe the favorites should be this weekend in Japan, but I hope this piece serves as a potential addition to help push you in a direction over anything else.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter (@TeeOffSports). There, I provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user input to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Zozo Championship Power Rankings
1. Xander Schauffele
There is a reason Xander Schauffele got posted at sub-10/1 to win the Zozo Championship, and it has nothing to do with books taking too much upfront juice.
The American graded No. 1 in this field in weighted par-four projection from 450+ yards, a range that will deliver the five most challenging locations daily. Schauffele's 33 consecutive made cuts should show the safety he possesses for a course that will have some bite, and if we end up looking at a 15-under winner, it is hard to slot someone ahead of him on this board.
2. Collin Morikawa (My Outright Selection | +1200 at FanDuel)
I've been a big advocate that the optimal way to bet this tournament from an outright perspective is to head straight toward the top. I don't have a problem with anyone who wants to do a one-person card on Xander Schauffele and call it an event. The one caveat to that answer is realizing you don't have the allotted resources you may think to include further additions. It becomes too much exposure in that area when other names are added to the mix.
All that said, I decided to start my outright card with Collin Morikawa since it allowed me the ability to enclose a second top-tiered choice to fight a two-for-one battle against the favorite. Morikawa had a plethora of high-end returns that other players in this field couldn't match when looking at his weighted proximity, GIR percentage, weighted scoring and recent ball striking. I will bet on that profile between the 11-14/1 range and hope his accuracy off the tee generates an amplified safety and upside return.
3. Rickie Fowler (My Outright Selection | +1600 at FanDuel)
My model saw an increase in Fowler's anticipated weighted proximity at Narashino. The second-place grade for expected scoring when considering all 18 holes at the property only further heightened the ceiling for a golfer who experienced a career-altering season that resembled outcomes of years past.
Much of that answer for this venue stemmed from the high-end outputs on the problematic par-four locations plus par-five birdie or better creations compared to the field. We will see if he can overcome a relatively slow few months after winning the Rocket Mortgage in July, but this is an ideal course fit for him to get back on track.
4. Sungjae Im
I am probably the most likely person in the space to find a reason to bet Sungjae Im. I've done it to no avail throughout the 2023 season but still strongly considered that route again because of his surge to end the FedExCup Playoffs.
I ultimately decided against that route, but it will be interesting to see where Im's game lands after becoming exempt from undergoing any future long-term military surface after he and Si Woo Kim teamed up at the Asian Games and captured gold. Maybe that provides a weight off his shoulders? Perhaps it causes a level of exhaustion that generates a letdown at the Zozo? Only time will tell, but it was enough for me to look elsewhere when push came to shove.
5. Hideki Matsuyama
There has been this out-of-sight, out-of-mind situation that has occurred with Hideki Matsuyama in 2023. The season was ravaged by an injury bug that caused a handful of underwhelming performances when we did see him in action. No top-10 finishes in the last 14 starts isn't quite the Hideki we have grown to love, but the extended break over the past two months may be just what the doctor ordered to get back on track.
Matsuyama's recent ball-striking before the layoff began to trend back toward the expected levels we have grown accustomed to yearly, and you aren't going to find much better of a scrambler on tour when the going gets tough. Slotting Matsuyama above the first four names is challenging, but he rounds out a top five that should be viewed inside a group of their own, even if my number six choice is quickly closing that gap.
6. Cameron Davis
I added an extra outlook for distance because most of the impactful scoring from either a production or avoidance standpoint will come when a driver is in hand. I know we see this short, par-70 course on paper and immediately want to say it is some plodders paradise, but the fact that we have three long par-fives to go along with the five most challenging holes that range between 486 to 505 yards does shift that narrative.
Davis was a name that skyrocketed in my sheet when his distance got added to the mix, making his five top-10 finishes over the last six events that much more enticing to attack inside various markets. As I stated with Sungjae, I thought there was realistic win equity at the price we were receiving to start the week.
7. Sahith Theegala
Sahith Theegala is one of your boom-or-bust talents in this field that can post a random 63 at any moment. That high-end upside always warrants consideration when talking about a limited-field event that doesn't have a cut, and it feels as if his victory at the Fortinet is getting counted against him since winning almost discredits someone's possibility to do it again in the minds of most. For whatever reason, it is the one sport where the public would rather Theegala have come second versus the outcome we received.
I don't think the profile is perfect here because of his inaccuracy off the tee, but if he pops, it could be in a big way. That is an answer that will also resonate perfectly with our next choice.
8. Min Woo Lee
I came into the week wanting to bet Min Woo Lee. I was hoping we would get 30/1+ and be able to grab the best golfer in this field who combines distance plus scrambling, but books have gotten better at avoiding those pitfalls of the past by posting him closer to 20/1 at most shops.
I couldn't get there with him as an outright because the number felt too condensed, but let's not ignore his potential in other markets throughout the week.
9. Eric Cole
We have been in this spot for what feels like a year now of books underrating Eric Cole in all markets. I get that ranking outside the top 100 in driving distance and accuracy is a cause for concern, especially on a claustrophobic test that requires length.
However, at what point do we all just admit that Cole is the real deal with every other iteration of his game?
10. J.J. Spaun
One of the misconceptions about building a model is that you need to be vastly different from the books with your answers. Sure, it helps to create value when you find discrepancies, but a proper model is typically in line with most of the math you will find elsewhere.
We have seen that answer with my power ranking choices this week mostly falling in line with the norm, but I found myself much higher on a golfer like J.J. Spaun than the general public.
The American leads this field in bogey avoidance and scrambling for a course that will demand excellence in those two areas, something we saw from a safety standpoint with his tournament-leading 30+ rounds of shooting par or better before that streak was broken at the Shriners.
Notable Mentions Just Outside the Top 10:
- Keegan Bradley
- Adam Schenk
- Vincent Norrman
- Beau Hossler
- Adam Scott
