We didn't have much exposure to the card this week, but it will still be an exciting final round as we have multiple horses in the race.
Keith Mitchell/Sungjae Im would be the optimal winner as they were my largest outright bet at 13/1. The two consistently dominated the four-ball format on Thursday and Saturday, firing a combined 20-under par over those two days to sit one off the lead. However, a come-from-behind victory from Matthew NeSmith/Taylor Moore (55/1) would be another out that could make this a successful event.
The pre-tournament matchup of Tom Hoge/Harris English will look to add to that total with their three-shot lead over Nicolai Hojgaard/Thorbjorn Olesen, but our work here is not yet done. Let's find another avenue to back that Hoge/English pairing one more time on Sunday.
If you haven't already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.
Zurich Classic of New Orleans
Tom Hoge/Harris English -115 over Alex Fitzpatrick/Matthew Fitzpatrick (Bet365)
If there is a format that starts to expose Alex Fitzpatrick in this tournament, it will naturally come during an alternate shot setting since his volatility will be on full display for 50% of the day.
I don't think that is something the industry has considered enough this week since four-ball allows Alex more of a chance to contribute, while having Matthew Fitzpatrick able to help him. However, more countable shots in alternate shot means a higher chance for mistakes when strokes are rotated back and forth.
We saw that Friday when the duo shot the worst score (71) of any tandem that made the cut and I don't think it helps that they have to take on a pairing in English/Hoge that rank near the top of the remaining teams in bogey avoidance.
That safety will go a long way against Alex and his 123rd-place rank in my short sample size of data, which begs the question, "How mispriced is this at -115?"
In my opinion, not as much as you think since Matthew still grades between -130 and -175 against both Hoge and English if running this individually. Still, we see this stretch out into the -200 to -240 range when flipping the script and running data from Hoge/English against his Alex.
I would say anything near -130 to -135 would have been more proper for this projection, but value can be a little more fickle than usual in this event. That doesn't mean we can't take a shot with a number grab here, but edges have been tight throughout the contest.
